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Estimating the Volatility of Electricity Prices: The Case of the England and Wales Wholesale Electricity Market

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  • Sherzod N. Tashpulatov

Abstract

Price fluctuations that partially comove with demand are a specific feature inherent to liberalized electricity markets. The regulatory authority in Great Britain, however, believed that sometimes electricity prices were significantly higher than what was expected and, therefore, introduced price-cap regulation and divestment series. In this study, I analyze how the introduced institutional changes and regulatory reforms affected the dynamics of daily electricity prices in the England and Wales wholesale electricity market during 1990-2001. The research finds that the introduction of price-cap regulation did achieve the goal of lowering the price level at the cost of higher price volatility. Later, the first series of divestments is found to be successful in lowering price volatility, which however happens at the cost of a higher price level. Finally, the study also documents that the second series of divestment was more successful in lowering both the price level and volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2011. "Estimating the Volatility of Electricity Prices: The Case of the England and Wales Wholesale Electricity Market," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp439, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp439
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    7. Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2018. "The Effects of German Wind and Solar Electricity on French Spot Price Volatility: An Empirical Investigation," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 258, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    8. Lízal, Lubomír M. & Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2014. "Do producers apply a capacity cutting strategy to increase prices? The case of the England and Wales electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-124.
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    11. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2022. "Modeling Electricity Price Dynamics Using Flexible Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Facchini, Angelo & Rubino, Alessandro & Caldarelli, Guido & Di Liddo, Giuseppe, 2019. "Changes to Gate Closure and its impact on wholesale electricity prices: The case of the UK," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 110-121.
    13. Swinand, Gregory P. & O'Mahoney, Amy, 2015. "Estimating the impact of wind generation and wind forecast errors on energy prices and costs in Ireland," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 468-473.
    14. Štefan Bojnec & Alan Križaj, 2021. "Electricity Markets during the Liberalization: The Case of a European Union Country," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    15. Guo, Kun & Liu, Yu & Cao, Shanwei & Zhai, Xiangyang & Ji, Qiang, 2025. "Can climate factors improve the forecasting of electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 315(C).
    16. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2021. "The Impact of Regulatory Reforms on Demand Weighted Average Prices," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-15, May.
    17. Rassi, Samin & Kanamura, Takashi, 2023. "Electricity price spike formation and LNG prices effect under gross bidding scheme in JEPX," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    18. Wierzbowski, Michal & Filipiak, Izabela, 2017. "Enhanced operational reserve as a tool for development of optimal energy mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 602-615.
    19. Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2015. "Analysis of electricity industry liberalization in Great Britain: How did the bidding behavior of electricity producers change?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-34.
    20. Hakan Acaroğlu & Fausto Pedro García Márquez, 2021. "Comprehensive Review on Electricity Market Price and Load Forecasting Based on Wind Energy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-23, November.
    21. Zorana Božić & Dušan Dobromirov & Jovana Arsić & Mladen Radišić & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Power Exchange Prices: Comparison of Volatility in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    22. Bobinaite, Viktorija & Juozapaviciene, Aldona & Staniewski, Marcin & Szczepankowski, Piotr, 2013. "Comparative analysis of features of Polish and Lithuanian Day-ahead electricity market prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 181-196.
    23. Ella Broos & Bernhard Dachs & Martina Dünser & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Kristof Mertens & Doris Schartinger & Robert Stehrer & Valentijn Vanoeteren, 2016. "EU Wholesale Trade: Analysis of the Sector and Value Chains," wiiw Research Reports 415, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    24. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2018. "The Impact of Behavioral and Structural Remedies on Electricity Prices: The Case of the England and Wales Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-24, December.
    25. Loi, Tian Sheng Allan & Ng, Jia Le, 2018. "Anticipating electricity prices for future needs – Implications for liberalised retail markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 244-264.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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