Modeling and forecasting electricity loads: A comparison
In this paper we study two statistical approaches to load forecasting. Both of them model electricity load as a sum of two components – a deterministic (representing seasonalities) and a stochastic (representing noise). They differ in the choice of the seasonality reduction method. Model A utilizes differencing, while Model B uses a recently developed seasonal volatility technique. In both models the stochastic component is described by an ARMA time series. Models are tested on a time series of system-wide loads from the California power market and compared with the official forecast of the California System Operator (CAISO).
|Date of creation:||07 Feb 2005|
|Note:||Type of Document - pdf; pages: 8. ”The European Electricity Market EEM-04”, Proceedings Volume, pp. 135-142|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org|
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- Smith, Michael, 2000. "Modeling and Short-term Forecasting of New South Wales Electricity System Load," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 465-478, October.