A semi-parametric time series approach in modeling hourly electricity loads
In this paper we develop a semi-parametric approach to model nonlinear relationships in serially correlated data. To illustrate the usefulness of this approach, we apply it to a set of hourly electricity load data. This approach takes into consideration the effect of temperature combined with those of time-of-day and type-of-day via nonparametric estimation. In addition, an ARIMA model is used to model the serial correlation in the data. An iterative backfitting algorithm is used to estimate the model. Post-sample forecasting performance is evaluated and comparative results are presented. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Volume (Year): 25 (2006)
Issue (Month): 8 ()
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- Smith, Michael, 2000. "Modeling and Short-term Forecasting of New South Wales Electricity System Load," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 465-478, October.
- Peirson, John & Henley, Andrew, 1994. "Electricity load and temperature : Issues in dynamic specification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 235-243, October.
- Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
- Cottet R. & Smith M., 2003. "Bayesian Modeling and Forecasting of Intraday Electricity Load," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 839-849, January.
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