Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise
In this paper we address the issue of modeling and forecasting electricity loads. We apply a two-step procedure to a series of system-wide loads from the California power market. First, we remove the weekly and annual seasonalities. Then, after analyzing properties of the deseasonalized data we fit an autoregressive moving average model. The obtained residuals seem to be independent but with tails heavier than Gaussian. It turns out that the hyperbolic distribution provides an excellent fit. As a justification for our approach we supply out-of-sample forecasts. As it turns out, our method performs significantly better than the one used by the California System Operator.
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Publication status:||Published in Signal Processing 82 (2002) 1903-1915.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Wybrzeze Wyspianskiego 27, 50-370 Wroclaw|
Web page: http://prac.im.pwr.wroc.pl/~hugo
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ramanathan, Ramu & Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive W. J. & Vahid-Araghi, Farshid & Brace, Casey, 1997. "Shorte-run forecasts of electricity loads and peaks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-174, June.
- Smith, Michael, 2000. "Modeling and Short-term Forecasting of New South Wales Electricity System Load," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(4), pages 465-478, October.
- Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
- Weron, R. & Kozłowska, B. & Nowicka-Zagrajek, J., 2001. "Modeling electricity loads in California: a continuous-time approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 344-350.
- Weron, Rafal, 2000. "Energy price risk management," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 127-134.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc0202. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rafal Weron)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.