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Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices

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  • Giulio Bottazzi
  • Sandro Sapio
  • Angelo Secchi

Abstract

It is widely accepted that in liberalized electricity markets log-returns display fat-tailed densities. Besides qualitative assessments, so far precise characterizations of the shape of the distribution have been seldom provided. In this work, we characterize the conditional and unconditional probability density functions of daily electricity log-returns, and of the underlying shocks from the NordPool market, for each of the 24 hours, through a very flexible and general family of distributions, namely the Subbotin family. Our study contributes with novel results in the field. First, we show that price fluctuations in electricity markets are additive in nature. We do this by exploiting a scaling relationship between price level and volatility, which is in turn a new result in the electricity markets literature. Second, in line with recent studies, we uncover the existence of multiple regimes in price dynamics, and we characterize the distributional shape for each of them. Interestingly, the shocks behind electricity price dynamics are approximately Laplace if one conditions on low price levels, and closer to a Gaussian in correspondence of high initial price levels. These results are at variance with the evidence from financial markets. The peculiar non-storable nature of electricity, and the varying strength of correlations between bidding behaviors at different load levels are suggested as possible key factors behind the specificities of electricity markets outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Giulio Bottazzi & Sandro Sapio & Angelo Secchi, 2004. "Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices," LEM Papers Series 2004/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2004/13
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Serati & Matteo Manera & Michele Plotegher, 2008. "Modelling electricity prices: from the state of the art to a draft of a new proposal," LIUC Papers in Economics 210, Cattaneo University (LIUC).
    2. Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.
    3. Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
    4. Olga Y. Uritskaya & Vadim M. Uritsky, 2015. "Predictability of price movements in deregulated electricity markets," Papers 1505.08117, arXiv.org.
    5. Rafał Weron, 2009. "Heavy-tails and regime-switching in electricity prices," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 69(3), pages 457-473, July.
    6. Sandro Sapio, 2006. "An Empirically Based Model of the Supply Schedule in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets," LEM Papers Series 2006/12, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2015. "Dynamic Model of Markets of Homogenous Non-Durables," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - German National Library of Economics, pages 1-12.
    8. Uritskaya, Olga Y. & Uritsky, Vadim M., 2015. "Predictability of price movements in deregulated electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 72-81.
    9. Angelica, Gianfreda & Lucia, Parisio & Matteo, Pelagatti, 2017. "The RES-induced Switching Effect Across Fossil Fuels: An Analysis of the Italian Day-Ahead and Balancing Prices and Their Connected Costs," Working Papers 360, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    10. Michel Culot & Valérie Goffin & Steve Lawford & Sébastien De Meten & Yves Smeers, 2013. "Practical stochastic modelling of electricity prices," Post-Print hal-01021603, HAL.
    11. Tomasz Kozubowski & Saralees Nadarajah, 2010. "Multitude of Laplace distributions," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 127-148, January.
    12. Weron, Rafal & Misiorek, Adam, 2007. "Heavy tails and electricity prices: Do time series models with non-Gaussian noise forecast better than their Gaussian counterparts?," MPRA Paper 2292, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2007.
    13. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary model of an anonymous consumer durable market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(14), pages 2692-2715.
    14. Petrella, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2012. "Assessing the impact of forward trading, retail liberalization, and white certificates on the Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 307-317.
    15. Weron, Rafal, 2009. "Forecasting wholesale electricity prices: A review of time series models," MPRA Paper 21299, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    17. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2012. "Evolutionäre Diffusion und der Produktlebenszyklus von Gebrauchsgütern," EconStor Preprints 59748, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    18. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2011. "Evolutionary Model of Non-Durable Markets," EconStor Preprints 50531, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    19. Kaldasch, Joachim, 2012. "Evolutionary model of the growth and size of firms," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(14), pages 3751-3769.

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    Keywords

    Electricity Markets; Subbotin Distribution; Laplace Distribution; Additive Process; Scaling;

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