IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices

  • Andrea Petrella
  • Sandro Sapio

How do changes in the market architecture affect the dynamics of deregulated electricity prices? We investigate this issue in the context of the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX), using data on the daily average day-ahead price (PUN) between April 2004 and December 2008. Estimates of baseline time series models (ARMAX and ARMAX-EGARCH) and their forecasting performances suggest that the trend in natural gas prices, deterministic weekly patterns, the impact of perceived temperatures, persistence in conditional volatility and the inverse leverage effect are essential features of the PUN dynamics. We then augment the best-performing models with dummies that account for changes in the market architecture, such as the introduction of contracts for differences (CfDs) to support renewables, trading of white certificates for energy efficiency, and the demandside liberalization. The findings show that changes in the market architecture have only affected the PUN volatility. Specifically, CfDs have mitigated volatility, while white certificates and demand liberalization have increased it. Moreover, after controlling for reforms the inverse leverage effect vanishes, and the persistence in volatility is lower than in the baseline estimates.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://cadmus.eui.eu/dspace/bitstream/1814/13099/1/RSCAS_2010_03.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European University Institute in its series RSCAS Working Papers with number 2010/03.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 22 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/03
Contact details of provider: Postal: Convento, Via delle Fontanelle, 19, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
  2. Chevallier, Julien & Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6793, Paris Dauphine University.
  3. Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
  4. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  5. Lowrey, Craig, 1997. "The pool and forward contracts in the UK electricity supply industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 413-423, March.
  6. Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
  7. Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
  8. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2005. "Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly," Working Papers 0506, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
  9. Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  10. Powell, Andrew, 1993. "Trading Forward in an Imperfect Market: The Case of Electricity in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 444-53, March.
  11. David M. Newbery, 1998. "Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
  12. Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2003. "Competition with Forward Contracts: A Laboratory Analysis Motivated by Electricity Market Design," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 581.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  13. Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Dieter Helm & Andrew Powell, 1992. "Pool prices, contracts and regulation in the British electricity supply industry," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 89-105, February.
  15. Herguera, Inigo, 2000. "Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 73-80, June.
  16. Federico Boffa & Viswanath Pingali, 2008. "MIncreasing Market Interconnection: an analysis of the Italian Electricity Spot Market," Working Papers 17-2008, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2008.
  17. Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet & Philippe Quirion, 2008. "Efficiency and distributional impacts of tradable white certificates compared to taxes, subsidies and regulations," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 118(6), pages 885-914.
  18. Mundaca, Luis, 2008. "Markets for energy efficiency: Exploring the implications of an EU-wide 'Tradable White Certificate' scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3016-3043, November.
  19. José Luis Ferreira & Praveen Kujal & Stephen Rassenti, 2009. "The strategic motive to sell forward: experimental evidence," Economics Working Papers we092616, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  20. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
  21. Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-24, March.
  22. Daniel Gordon, 1995. "Optimal lag length in estimating Dickey-Fuller statistics: an empirical note," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 188-190.
  23. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
  24. Le Coq, Chloe & Orzen, Henrik, 2006. "Do forward markets enhance competition?: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 415-431, November.
  25. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  26. Fraser, Hamish & Lanza, Salvatore, 2006. "It Matters Which Way You Slice It: Risk Management for the 2005 Procurement Auction of Italy's Acquirente Unico," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 66-76.
  27. Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
  28. repec:mop:credwp:09.07.85 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
  30. Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
  31. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2007. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(4), pages 415-432, November.
  32. Ferrari, Alessandra & Giulietti, Monica, 2005. "Competition in electricity markets: international experience and the case of Italy," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 247-255, September.
  33. Kanamura, Takashi, 2009. "A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 736-747, September.
  34. Gordon, D.V., 1994. "Optimal Lag Length in Estimating Dickey-Fuller Statistics: An Empirical Note," Papers 9405, Calgary - Department of Economics.
  35. Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
  36. repec:cto:journl:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:515-544 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RSCAS web unit)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.