No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices
How do changes in the market architecture affect the dynamics of deregulated electricity prices? We investigate this issue in the context of the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX), using data on the daily average day-ahead price (PUN) between April 2004 and December 2008. Estimates of baseline time series models (ARMAX and ARMAX-EGARCH) and their forecasting performances suggest that the trend in natural gas prices, deterministic weekly patterns, the impact of perceived temperatures, persistence in conditional volatility and the inverse leverage effect are essential features of the PUN dynamics. We then augment the best-performing models with dummies that account for changes in the market architecture, such as the introduction of contracts for differences (CfDs) to support renewables, trading of white certificates for energy efficiency, and the demandside liberalization. The findings show that changes in the market architecture have only affected the PUN volatility. Specifically, CfDs have mitigated volatility, while white certificates and demand liberalization have increased it. Moreover, after controlling for reforms the inverse leverage effect vanishes, and the persistence in volatility is lower than in the baseline estimates.
|Date of creation:||22 Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Convento, Via delle Fontanelle, 19, 50014 San Domenico di Fiesole (FI) Italy|
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/RSCAS/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-24, March.
- Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
- Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009.
"Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS,"
EconomiX Working Papers
2009-33, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2011. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers 1107, Chaire Economie du Climat.
- Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers halshs-00405709, HAL.
- Julien Chevallier & Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2009. "Options introduction and volatility in the EU ETS," Working Papers hal-00419339, HAL.
- Le Coq, Chloe & Orzen, Henrik, 2006.
"Do forward markets enhance competition?: Experimental evidence,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 415-431, November.
- Le Coq, Chloé & Orzen, Henrik, 2002. "Do Forward Markets Enhance Competition? Experimental Evidence," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 506, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 01 Oct 2004.
- Terry Robinson & Andrzej Baniak, 2002. "The volatility of prices in the English and Welsh electricity pool," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(12), pages 1487-1495.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/6793 is not listed on IDEAS
- Herguera, Inigo, 2000. "Bilateral contracts and the spot market for electricity: some observations on the British and the NordPool experiences," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 73-80, June.
- Mundaca, Luis, 2008. "Markets for energy efficiency: Exploring the implications of an EU-wide 'Tradable White Certificate' scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3016-3043, November.
- repec:cto:journl:v:21:y:2002:i:3:p:515-544 is not listed on IDEAS
- repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:4:p:415-432 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
- Dieter Helm & Andrew Powell, 1992. "Pool prices, contracts and regulation in the British electricity supply industry," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 89-105, February.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Sandro Sapio & Angelo Secchi, 2004.
"Some Statistical Investigations on the Nature and Dynamics of Electricity Prices,"
LEM Papers Series
2004/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Bottazzi, G. & Sapio, S. & Secchi, A., 2005. "Some statistical investigations on the nature and dynamics of electricity prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 355(1), pages 54-61.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Ooms, Marius & Carnero, M. Angeles, 2007.
"Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMAGARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association,
American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 16-27, March.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & M. Angeles Carnero, 2005. "Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-091/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Deng, S.J. & Oren, S.S., 2006. "Electricity derivatives and risk management," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 940-953.
- Kanamura, Takashi, 2009. "A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 736-747, September.
- Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2003.
"Competition with Forward Contracts: A Laboratory Analysis Motivated by Electricity Market Design,"
666156000000000172, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2008. "Competition with forward contracts: a laboratory analysis motivated by electricity market design," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 192-214, 01.
- Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2003. "Competition with Forward Contracts: A Laboratory Analysis Motivated by Electricity Market Design," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 581.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2003. "Competitions with Forward Contracts: A Laboratory Analysis Motivated by Electricity Market Design," Working Papers 66, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Powell, Andrew, 1993. "Trading Forward in an Imperfect Market: The Case of Electricity in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(417), pages 444-53, March.
- repec:tur:wpaper:4 is not listed on IDEAS
- Newbery, D. M., 1997.
"Competition, Contracts and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9707, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- David M. Newbery, 1998. "Competition, Contracts, and Entry in the Electricity Spot Market," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(4), pages 726-749, Winter.
- Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2005.
"Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly,"
0506, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
- Boffa, Federico & Pingali, Viswanath & Vannoni, Davide, 2010.
"Increasing market interconnection: An analysis of the Italian electricity spot market,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 311-322, May.
- Federico Boffa & Viswanath Pingali, 2008. "MIncreasing Market Interconnection: an analysis of the Italian Electricity Spot Market," Working Papers 17-2008, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2008.
- Federico Boffa & Viswanath Pingali & Davide Vannoni, 2009. "Increasing Market Interconnection: An analysis of the Italian Electricity Spot Market," Working papers 04, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
- Misiorek Adam & Trueck Stefan & Weron Rafal, 2006. "Point and Interval Forecasting of Spot Electricity Prices: Linear vs. Non-Linear Time Series Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-36, September.
- repec:mop:credwp:09.07.85 is not listed on IDEAS
- Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
- Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Philippe Quirion & Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet, 2008.
"Efficiency and Distributional Impacts of Tradable White Certificates Compared to Taxes, Subsidies and Regulations,"
2008.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet & Philippe Quirion, 2008. "Efficiency and distributional impacts of tradable white certificates compared to taxes, subsidies and regulations," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 118(6), pages 885-914.
- Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet & Philippe Quirion, 2008. "Efficiency and distributional impacts of tradable white certificates compared to taxes, subsidies and regulations," Post-Print hal-00716695, HAL.
- Fraser, Hamish & Lanza, Salvatore, 2006. "It Matters Which Way You Slice It: Risk Management for the 2005 Procurement Auction of Italy's Acquirente Unico," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 66-76.
- Daniel Gordon, 1995.
"Optimal lag length in estimating Dickey-Fuller statistics: an empirical note,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(6), pages 188-190.
- Gordon, D.V., 1994. "Optimal Lag Length in Estimating Dickey-Fuller Statistics: An Empirical Note," Papers 9405, Calgary - Department of Economics.
- Adam Misiorek & Rafal Weron, 2006. "Interval forecasting of spot electricity prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/06/05, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2007. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(4), pages 415-432, November.
- Lowrey, Craig, 1997. "The pool and forward contracts in the UK electricity supply industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 413-423, March.
- Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
- De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 1999. "Cointegration analysis of spot electricity prices: insights on transmission efficiency in the western US," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 435-448, October.
- Lester Hadsell, Achla Marathe and Hany A. Shawky, 2004. "Estimating the Volatility of Wholesale Electricity Spot Prices in the US," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 23-40.
- Kujal, Praveen & Ferreira, José Luis & Rassenti, Stephen, 2009. "The strategic motive to sell forward: experimental evidence," UC3M Working papers. Economics we092616, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
- Ferrari, Alessandra & Giulietti, Monica, 2005. "Competition in electricity markets: international experience and the case of Italy," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 247-255, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rsc:rsceui:2010/03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (RSCAS web unit)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.