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Options Introduction and Volatility in the EU ETS

  • Julien Chevallier

    ()

    (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université de Paris X - Nanterre)

  • Yannick Le Pen

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)

  • Benoît Sévi

    (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)

To improve risk management in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the European Climate Exchange (ECX) has introduced option instruments in October 2006 after regulatory authorization. The central question we address is: can we identify a potential destabilizing effect of the introduction of options on the underlying market (EU ETS futures)? Indeed, the literature on commodities futures suggest that the introduction of derivatives may either decrease (due to more market depth) or increase (due to more speculation) volatility. As the identification of these effects ultimately remains an empirical question, we use daily data from April 2005 to April 2008 to document volatility behavior in the EU ETS. By instrumenting various GARCH models, endogenous break tests, and rolling window estimations, our results overall suggest that the introduction of the option market had no effect on the volatility in the EU ETS. These finding are robust to other likely influences linked to energy and commodity markets.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00405709.

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Date of creation: 20 Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00405709
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  1. Alberola, Emilie & Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît, 2009. "Emissions Compliances and Carbon Prices under the EU ETS: A Country Specific Analysis of Industrial Sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 446-462, May.
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  10. Pierluigi Bologna & Laura Cavallo, 2002. "Does the introduction of stock index futures effectively reduce stock market volatility? Is the 'futures effect' immediate? Evidence from the Italian stock exchange using GARCH," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 183-192.
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  16. A. Ellerman & Barbara Buchner, 2008. "Over-Allocation or Abatement? A Preliminary Analysis of the EU ETS Based on the 2005–06 Emissions Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 41(2), pages 267-287, October.
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  18. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2002. "Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation, and Empirical Results," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 363-76, July.
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  20. Oberndorfer, Ulrich, 2009. "EU Emission Allowances and the stock market: Evidence from the electricity industry," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1116-1126, February.
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