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Do Firms sell forward for Strategic Reasons? An Application to the Wholesale Market for Natural Gas

Author

Listed:
  • Remco van Eijkel

    (Dept. of Economics, Econometrics and Finance, University of Groningen)

  • Jose Luis Moraga

    (ICREA, IESE Business School, and University of Groningen)

Abstract

Building on a model of the interaction of risk-averse frms that compete in forward and spot markets, we develop an empirical strategy to test whether oligopolistic frms use forward contracts for strategic motives, for risk-hedging, or for both. An increase in the number of players weakens the incentives to sell forward for risk-hedging reasons.However, if strategic motives are also relevant, then an increase in the number of players strengthens the incentives to sell forward. This difference provides the analyst with a way to identify whether strategic considerations are important at motivating frms to sell forward. Using data from the Dutch wholesale market for natural gas where we observe the number of players, spot and forward sales, and churn rates, we find evidence that strategic reasons play an important role at explaining the observed firms' (inverse) hedge ratios. In addition, the data lend support to the existence of a learning effect by wholesalers.

Suggested Citation

  • Remco van Eijkel & Jose Luis Moraga, 2010. "Do Firms sell forward for Strategic Reasons? An Application to the Wholesale Market for Natural Gas," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-058/1, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20100058
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. van Koten, Silvester & Ortmann, Andreas, 2013. "Structural versus behavioral remedies in the deregulation of electricity markets: An experimental investigation motivated by policy concerns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 256-265.
    3. Argenton, Cédric & Willems, Bert, 2015. "Exclusion through speculation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-9.
    4. Aichele, Markus, 2014. "Strategic investment, forward markets and competition," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 76, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    5. Motta, Massimo & Hansen, Stephen, 2012. "Vertical Exclusion with Endogenous Competiton Externalities," CEPR Discussion Papers 8982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    market power; risk-hedging; forward contracts; spot market; over-thecounter trade; market transparency; churn rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

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