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Strategic use of forward contracts and capacity constraints

  • Adilov, Nodir
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    This paper analyzes the implications of forward markets under demand uncertainty when oligopolistic firms endogenously choose capacity levels. The paper shows that a forward market that occurs after the investment decision is committed does not increase social welfare if demand uncertainty is relatively small. This result is contradictory to Allaz and Vila (1993) findings that forward markets mitigate market power and enhance efficiency. However, a forward market improves social welfare if demand uncertainty is relatively large. The findings have important policy implications for capital-intensive industries where capacity expansion requires long lead time.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167718711000786
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Industrial Organization.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 164-173

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:indorg:v:30:y:2012:i:2:p:164-173
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505551

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    1. Jordi Brandts & Paul Pezanis-Christou & Arthur Schram, 2003. "Competition with Forward Contracts: A Laboratory Analysis Motivated by Electricity Market Design," Levine's Bibliography 666156000000000172, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. Allaz, Blaise, 1992. "Oligopoly, uncertainty and strategic forward transactions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 297-308, June.
    3. Matti Liski & Juan-Pablo Montero, 2004. "Forward trading and collusion in oligopoly," Working Papers 0412, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
    4. Laussel, D., 1990. "Strategic Commercial Policy Revisited: A Supply Function Equilibrium Model," G.R.E.Q.A.M. 90a05, Universite Aix-Marseille III.
    5. Mahenc, P. & Salanie, F., 2004. "Softening competition through forward trading," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 282-293, June.
    6. Kyle Bagwell, 1992. "Commitment and Observability in Games," Discussion Papers 1014, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    7. Hughes, John S. & Kao, Jennifer L., 1997. "Strategic forward contracting and observability," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-133, November.
    8. Green, Richard, 1999. "The Electricity Contract Market in England and Wales," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 107-24, March.
    9. Ferreira José Luis, 2006. "The Role of Observability in Futures Markets," The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, June.
    10. Williams, Jeffrey, 1987. "Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1000-1023, October.
    11. Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-77, November.
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