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Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?


  • Williams, Jeffrey


A two-period model of an industry of risk-neutral processors who have nonlinear production costs and who face transact ions costs in the spot and futures markets is put forth as a countere xample to the models of commodity markets in which processors' risk a version plays the major role. The model's equilibrium exhibits the sa lient endogenous features of actual commodity markets, namely, that t he futures price is below the current spot price, that processors hol d inventories despite this opportunity cost, that those holding inven tories are short in futures, and that processors as a group hold an u nbalanced, usually net short, position in the futures market. Copyright 1987 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Williams, Jeffrey, 1987. "Futures Markets: A Consequences of Risk Aversion or Transactions Costs?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1000-1023, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:95:y:1987:i:5:p:1000-1023

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bergstrom, Theodore C & Goodman, Robert P, 1973. "Private Demands for Public Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 280-296, June.
    2. Edward M. Gramlich & Harvy Galper, 1973. "State and Local Fiscal Behavior and Federal Grant Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 15-66.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Introduction to "Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis"," NBER Chapters,in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hettich, Walter & Winer, Stanley, 1984. "A positive model of tax structure," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 67-87, June.
    5. Howard R. Bowen, 1943. "The Interpretation of Voting in the Allocation of Economic Resources," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 27-48.
    6. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feld83-2, January.
    7. Robert P. Inman, 1985. "Does Deductibility Influence Local Taxation?," NBER Working Papers 1714, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
    2. Evans, Lewis & Counsell, Kevin & Guthrie, Graeme, 2006. "Options Provided by Storage can Explain High Electricity Prices," Working Paper Series 3943, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    3. Sykuta, Michael E., 1996. "Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 317-334, July.
    4. Aaron Smith, 2005. "Partially overlapping time series: a new model for volatility dynamics in commodity futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 405-422.
    5. Hansen, Kristiana & Howitt, Richard E. & Williams, Jeffrey C., 2005. "An Econometric Test of the Endogeneity of Institutions: Water Markets in the Western United States," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19548, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    7. Zulauf, Carl R. & Sanghyo, Kim, 2014. "Is Storage Rational When the Price is Expected to Decline? An Initial Study Using Data from U.S. Futures and Options Markets," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170593, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Carter, Colin A. & Smith, Aaron D., 2004. "The Market Effect of a Food Scare: The Case of Genetically Modified StarLink Corn," Working Papers 11997, University of California, Davis, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    9. Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Inventories and the Short-Run Dynamics of Commodity Prices," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(1), pages 141-159, Spring.
    10. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    11. Bassam Fattouh & Lavan Mahadeva, 2014. "Causes and Implications of Shifts in Financial Participation in Commodity Markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(8), pages 757-787, August.
    12. Adilov, Nodir, 2012. "Strategic use of forward contracts and capacity constraints," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 164-173.
    13. Yates Nicholas A, 2009. "Revisiting the Tobin Tax, in the Context of Development and the Financial Crisis," The Law and Development Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 257-282, November.
    14. Haim Mendelson & Tunay I. Tunca, 2007. "Strategic Spot Trading in Supply Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 742-759, May.

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