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Modelling and forecasting by wavelets, and the application to exchange rates

Listed author(s):
  • H. Wong
  • Wai-Cheung Ip
  • Zhongjie Xie
  • Xueli Lui
Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the modelling and forecasting method for non-stationary time series. Using wavelets, the authors propose a modelling procedure that decomposes the series as the sum of three separate components, namely trend, harmonic and irregular components. The estimates suggested in this paper are all consistent. This method has been used for the modelling of US dollar against DM exchange rate data, and ten steps ahead (2 weeks) forecasting are compared with several other methods. Under the Average Percentage of forecasting Error (APE) criterion, the wavelet approach is the best one. The results suggest that forecasting based on wavelets is a viable alternative to existing methods.

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    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Journal of Applied Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2003)
    Issue (Month): 5 ()
    Pages: 537-553

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:japsta:v:30:y:2003:i:5:p:537-553
    DOI: 10.1080/0266476032000053664
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