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Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov-switching in autoregressive models

Listed author(s):
  • Jean-Marie Dufour
  • Richard Luger

This paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of normal mixtures implied by the regime-switching process and uses Monte Carlo test techniques to deal with the presence of an autoregressive component in the model specification. The proposed tests have very respectable power in comparison to the optimal tests for Markov-switching parameters of Carrasco et al. (2014) and they are also quite attractive owing to their computational simplicity. The new tests are illustrated with an empirical application to an autoregressive model of U.S. output growth.

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File URL: http://www.cirano.qc.ca/files/publications/2016s-63.pdf
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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2016s-63.

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Length: 25 pages
Date of creation: 31 Dec 2016
Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2016s-63
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  1. Jin Seo Cho & Halbert White, 2007. "Testing for Regime Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1671-1720, November.
  2. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
  3. Gourieroux,Christian & Monfort,Alain, 1995. "Statistics and Econometric Models 2 volume set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521478373, March.
  4. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda & Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Genest, Ian, 2004. "Simulation-based finite-sample tests for heteroskedasticity and ARCH effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 317-347, October.
  5. Andrew V. Carter & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 2012. "Testing for Regime Switching: A Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(4), pages 1809-1812, 07.
  6. Davig, Troy, 2004. "Regime-switching debt and taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 837-859, May.
  7. Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information, and Stock Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, July.
  8. Timmermann, Allan, 2000. "Moments of Markov switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 75-111, May.
  9. Peter E. Rossi, 2014. "Bayesian Non- and Semi-parametric Methods and Applications," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10259.
  10. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
  11. Lee, Lung-Fei & Chesher, Andrew, 1986. "Specification testing when score test statistics are identically zero," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 121-149, March.
  12. Carter Andrew V. & Steigerwald Douglas G., 2013. "Markov Regime-Switching Tests: Asymptotic Critical Values," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 25-34, July.
  13. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
  14. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2006. "Monte Carlo tests with nuisance parameters: A general approach to finite-sample inference and nonstandard asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 443-477, August.
  15. Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-788, August.
  16. Marine Carrasco & Liang Hu & Werner Ploberger, 2014. "Optimal Test for Markov Switching Parameters," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 765-784, 03.
  17. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Marcel Voia, 2013. "Finite-sample resampling-based combined hypothesis tests, with applications to serial correlation and predictability," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-40, CIRANO.
  18. James D. Hamilton, 2016. "Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts," NBER Working Papers 21863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
  20. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  21. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Finite-sample properties of the maximum likelihood estimator in autoregressive models with Markov switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 369-386, June.
  22. repec:eee:macchp:v2-163 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Watson, Mark W & Engle, Robert F, 1985. "Testing for Regression Coefficient Stability with a Stationary AR(1) Alternative," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(2), pages 341-346, May.
  24. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  25. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
  26. Beaulieu, Marie-Claude & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Khalaf, Lynda, 2007. "Multivariate Tests of MeanVariance Efficiency With Possibly Non-Gaussian Errors: An Exact Simulation-Based Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 398-410, October.
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