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Looking Behind the U. K.Term Structure: Were there Peso Problems in Inflation?

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  • Martin Evans

    (Georgetown University)

Abstract

This paper develops and estimates a general equilibrium model for the term structures of nominal and real interest rates that incorporates regime-switching into the dynamics ofthe state variables. The model generates time-varying risk premia via changes in the covariance structure of the state variables and Peso problems through regime- switching. When the model is estimated using real and nominal yields from the U. K., I find that Peso problems emanating from instability in inflation have a significant impact on the nominal term structure. Peso problems affect (i) the sample predictability of excess returns, (ii) nominal term premia,and (iii) the inflation risk premia linking real and nominal yields with expected inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Evans, 1998. "Looking Behind the U. K.Term Structure: Were there Peso Problems in Inflation?," Finance 9809001, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9809001 Note: Type of Document - .pdf; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP;
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    2. Jacobs, Mike & Remolona, Eli & Wickens, Michael R., 1998. "What was the Market's View of UK Monetary Policy? Estimating Inflation Risk and Expected Inflation with Indexed Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 2022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-182, April.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 241-270.
    6. Backus, David & Foresi, Silverio & Mozumdar, Abon & Wu, Liuren, 2001. "Predictable changes in yields and forward rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 281-311.
    7. Martin D.D. Evans, 1995. "Peso Problems: Their Theoretical and Empirical Implications," Working Papers 95-05, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    8. Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bank of England working papers 24, Bank of England.
    9. Roberds, William & Whiteman, Charles H., 1999. "Endogenous term premia and anomalies in the term structure of interest rates: Explaining the predictability smile," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 555-580.
    10. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 1-22.
    11. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
    12. Kahn, Charles M & Roberds, William, 1998. "Payment System Settlement and Bank Incentives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 845-870.
    13. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 285-318.
    14. Pearson, N.D. & Sun, T.S., 1991. "An Empirical Examination of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Papers fb-24, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 2001. "Peso problem explanations for term structure anomalies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 241-270.
    16. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Were price changes during the Great Depression anticipated? : Evidence from nominal interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 3-34.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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