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Instrumental-Variables Estimation in Markov Switching Models with Endogenous Explanatory Variables: An Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Listed author(s):
  • Psaradakis Zacharias

    ()

    (Birkbeck College)

  • Sola Martin

    ()

    (Birkbeck College and Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

  • Spagnolo Fabio

    ()

    (Brunel University)

This paper considers the problem of estimating Markov regime switching models with endogenous explanatory variables. When the data-generating process for consumption is subject to Markov regime switching, the standard model for the term structure of interest rates based on the Euler equations for a utility-maximizing agent implies the presence of a time-varying risk premium which is also subject to Markov regime shifts. Under such conditions, the regression equations that are typically used to test the expectations hypothesis of the term structure do not only have regime-dependent parameters but also endogenous regressors (that is right-hand-side variables which are correlated with the disturbances within each regime). Using three-month and six-month interest rates for the G7 countries, we show that the (generalized) expectations hypothesis cannot be rejected when we allow for a risk premium with Markov regimes, provided that instrumental variables are used to account for endogeneity.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 1-31

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:10:y:2006:i:2:n:1
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  13. Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo, 2005. "Testing the unbiased forward exchange rate hypothesis using a Markov switching model and instrumental variables," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 423-437.
  14. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, 03.
  15. Evans, Martin D. D. & Lewis, Karen K., 1994. "Do stationary risk premia explain it all?: Evidence from the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 285-318, April.
  16. Driffill, John & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "A Reconciliation of Some Paradoxical Empirical Results on the Expectations Model of the Term Structure," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(1), pages 29-42, February.
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  21. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
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  23. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, September.
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