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Política Monetaria y Cambios de Régimen en los tipos de Interés del Mercado Interbancario

We analyse the dynamic behaviour of the 1-month interest rate of the Spanish money market between 1987 and 2001. The rate is modelled as a squared-root diffusion process that allows the rate to change depending on the state of the economy. The switch between regimes is governed by a first-order Markov process with state-dependent transition probabilities. We find two clearly differentiated regimens that can be related with changes in the monetary policy. We find periods of extremely high and volatile interest rates, which seem to be associated with episodes characterized by strong pressures in the exchange markets. This kind of behaviour is the less probable one. The second regime presents a bigger persistence, and it is characterized by less volatile and low interest rates that behave clearly as a random walk..

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Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico in its series Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE with number 0209.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:0209
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  1. Nowman, K B, 1997. " Gaussian Estimation of Single-Factor Continuous Time Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1695-1706, September.
  2. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Regime Switches in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
  3. Evans, Martin D D & Lewis, Karen K, 1995. " Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Affect Estimates of the Long-Run Fisher Relation?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 225-53, March.
  4. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1997. ""Peso Problem" Explanations for Term Structure Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 6147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. K. Ben Nowman, 1998. "Continuous-time short term interest rate models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 401-407.
  6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
  7. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
  8. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  9. Sola, Martin & Driffill, John, 1994. "Testing the term structure of interest rates using a stationary vector autoregression with regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 601-628.
  10. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
  11. Chan, K C, et al, 1992. " An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Models of the Short-Term Interest Rate," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1209-27, July.
  12. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  13. Dahlquist, Magnus, 1996. "On alternative interest rate processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1093-1119, July.
  14. Episcopos, Athanasios, 2000. "Further evidence on alternative continuous time models of the short-term interest rate," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 199-212, June.
  15. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002. "Short rate nonlinearities and regime switches," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(7-8), pages 1243-1274, July.
  16. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
  17. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S61-82, Suppl. De.
  18. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
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