Tobin tax and trading volume tightening: a reassessment
This article extends the previous literature on the Tobin tax and financial transaction tax. We investigate the linkages between trading volumes and transaction costs using both a linear and a nonlinear methodology. In stark contrast with previous studies, we consider the possibility that our model may exhibit threshold effects or regime dependency by estimating a Markov Switching (MS) model. This paper is the first contribution to specify the trading volume of the Forex through different (low and high volatility) regimes. Our empirical investigation looks at the EUR/USD currency market. Our results show evidence of nonlinear patterns for trading volumes and transaction costs on the Forex. The Tobin tax would not have a monotonic impact on trading activity across market conditions. However, the change in elasticity between low and high volatility regimes is slight (-0.17 versus -0.21). We may suggest that the low-variance regime might be the fundamentalist regime and the high- variance regime (lower Tobin tax elasticity) might be the chartist regime. This study is a first step towards understanding which categories of agents dominate the market under the various market regimes and how they would react to the introduction of a tax. This means our results are consistent with Tobin's underlying thinking (1974, 1978, 1996). Since a tax would penalize chartists more than fundamentalists, it could reduce exchange rate volatility.
|Date of creation:||09 Jan 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00926805|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hanke, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Sutter, Matthias, 2010.
"The economic consequences of a Tobin tax--An experimental analysis,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 74(1-2), pages 58-71, May.
- Michael Hanke & J?rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Matthias Sutter, 2007. "The economic consequences of a Tobin tax - An experimental analysis," Working Papers 2007-18, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
- Asger Lunde & Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2001.
"A Forecast Comparison of Volatility Models: Does Anything Beat a GARCH(1,1)?,"
2001-04, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
- Park, Beum-Jo, 2010. "Surprising information, the MDH, and the relationship between volatility and trading volume," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 344-366, August.
- Robert Z. Aliber & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Shu Yan, 2003. "Some Evidence that a Tobin Tax on Foreign Exchange Transactions May Increase Volatility," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 481-510.
- Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002.
"Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569.
- Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K Rose, 1999. "Noise trading and exchange rate regimes," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G99/2, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeanne, Olivier & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frank Westerhoff, 2003.
"Heterogeneous traders and the Tobin tax,"
Journal of Evolutionary Economics,
Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 53-70, 02.
- Vigfusson, Robert, 1997.
"Switching between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 291-305, October.
- Vigfusson, R., 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Staff Working Papers 96-1, Bank of Canada.
- Robert Vigfusson, 1996. "Switching Between Chartists and Fundamentalists: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," International Finance 9602003, EconWPA.
- Neil McCulloch & Grazia Pacillo, 2010. "The Tobin Tax A Review of the Evidence," Working Paper Series 1611, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
- Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P, 2009.
"The Crisis in the Foreign Exchange Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7472, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pellizzari, Paolo & Westerhoff, Frank, 2009.
"Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 850-863, December.
- Paolo Pellizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Post-Print hal-00727590, HAL.
- Paolo Pelizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Some Effects of Transaction Taxes Under Different Microstructures," Research Paper Series 212, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Paolo Pellizzari & Frank Westerhoff, 2009. "Some effects of transaction taxes under different microstructures," Working Papers 190, Department of Applied Mathematics, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia.
- Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert, 2002.
"Regime Switches in Interest Rates,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 163-82, April.
- Marie Bessec & François-Mathieu Robineau, 2003.
"Comportements chartistes et fondamentalistes. Coexistence ou domination alternative sur le marché des changes?,"
Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(6), pages 1213-1238.
- Robineau, François-Mathieu & Bessec, Marie, 2003. "Comportements chartistes et fondamentalistes : Coexistence ou domination alternative sur le marché des changes ?," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/10086, Paris Dauphine University.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1996.
"How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?,"
NBER Working Papers
5422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey Frankel., 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-058, University of California at Berkeley.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James Tobin, 1978.
"A Proposal for International Monetary Reform,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
506, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Francis Bismans & Olivier Damette, 2008. "Currency Transaction Tax Elasticity: an Econometric Estimation," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 115, pages 193-212.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
- Park, Beum-Jo, 2011. "Asymmetric herding as a source of asymmetric return volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2657-2665, October.
- Markus Demary, 2008. "Who Does a Currency Transaction Tax Harm More: Short-Term Speculators or Long-Term Investors?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 228(2+3), pages 228-250, June.
- Frank M. Song & Junxi Zhang, 2005. "Securities Transaction Tax and Market Volatility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(506), pages 1103-1120, October.
- Luc Bauwens & Dagfinn Rime & Genaro Sucarrat, 2006.
"Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis,"
Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 889-911, January.
- Luc, BAUWENS & Dagfinn, RIME & Genaro, SUCARRAT, 2005. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005043, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- BAUWENS, Luc & RIME, Dagfinn & SUCARRAT, Genaro, . "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1788, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & RIME, Dagfinn & SUCARRAT, Genaro, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the mixture of distribution hypothesis," CORE Discussion Papers 2005058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
- de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
- Kang Shi & Juanyi Xu, 2009. "Entry cost, the Tobin tax, and noise trading in the foreign exchange market," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1501-1526, November.
- Hartmann, Philipp, 1999. "Trading volumes and transaction costs in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from daily dollar-yen spot data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 801-824, May.
- Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Tobin Tax Effects Seen from the Foreign Exchange Market's Microstructure," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(2), pages 227-47, Summer.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00926805. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.