Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification
Several theoretical models suggest that the mere announcement of entering a currency union in the future triggers instantaneous changes in exchange-rate volatility. First, this paper develops a Markov-switching framework by which, in fact, volatility regime-switching in foreign exchange rates can be detected for all currencies in the run-up to the European Monetary Union (EMU). Second, the paper attributes the currency-specific volatility regime-switches to decisive economic, institutional and political factors prior to EMU. All in all, the empirical results suggest that for future EMU accession countries volatility regime-switching models provide a useful tool for a broad range of financial applications (e.g. for the pricing of currency options or for the construction of EMU probability calculators).
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Obstfeld, Maurice, 1997.
"A Strategy for Launching the Euro,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1732, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000.
"Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: The Methodology of EMU Calculators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Fabrizio Iacone & Guido Tabellini, . "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: the Methodology of EMU Calculators," Working Papers 113, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1991.
"On Biases in the Measurement of Foreign Exchange Risk Premiums,"
NBER Working Papers
3861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
- Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "State- and time-contingent switches of exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 361-374, May.
- Charles Engel & Craig S. Hakkio, 1994.
"The distribution of exchange rates in the EMS,"
Research Working Paper
94-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- René Garcia, 1995.
"Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Garcia, Rene, 1998. "Asymptotic Null Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio Test in Markov Switching Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 763-88, August.
- Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
- Michael J. Dueker, 1995.
"Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean reverting stock market volatility,"
1994-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
- Wilfling, Bernd & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2001. "Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-113, February.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-12, July.
- Bates, David S., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 229-269, December.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Alois Geyer & Stephan Kossmeier & Stefan Pichler, 2004. "Measuring Systematic Risk in EMU Government Yield Spreads," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 171-197.
- Kim, C-J., 1991.
"Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching,"
91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
- Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December.
- De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Gray, Stephen F., 1996.
"Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Gray's 1996 Regime Switching GARCH paper," Statistical Software Components RTZ00080, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
- De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "How to Fix Conversion Rates at the Start of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1999. "Price dynamics under stochastic process switching: some extensions and an application to EMU1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-224, February.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Hansson, Jesper, 2005. "Real exchange rates and switching regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 121-138, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:28:y:2009:i:2:p:240-270. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.