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Regime switching models of hedge fund returns

  • Szabolcs Blazsek

    ()

    (Department of Business, Universidad de Navarra)

  • Anna Downarowicz

    ()

    (Department of Finance, Instituto de Empresa Business School)

We estimate and compare the forecasting performance of several dynamic models of returns of different hedge fund strategies. The conditional mean of return is an ARMA process while its conditional volatility is modeled according to the GARCH specification. In order to take into account the high level of risk of these strategies, we also consider a Markov switching structure of the parameters in both equations to capture jumps. Finally, the one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecast performance of different models is compared.

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File URL: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom/files/workingpapersmodule/@random482ac104b1c71/1228599113_WP_12_08_Blazsek_Downarowicz.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra in its series Faculty Working Papers with number 12/08.

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Length: 52 pages
Date of creation: 28 Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp1208
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.unav.es/facultad/econom

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  1. Luc, BAUWENS & Arie, PREMINGER & Jeroen, ROMBOUTS, 2007. "Theory and inference for a Markov switching GARCH model," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007033, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
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  3. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  4. Charles Engel, 1991. "Can the Markov switching model forecast exchange rates?," Research Working Paper 91-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
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  11. Kim, C-J., 1991. "Dynamic Linear Models with Markov-Switching," Papers 91-8, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
  12. Jan Henneke & Svetlozar Rachev & Frank Fabozzi & Metodi Nikolov, 2011. "MCMC-based estimation of Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(3), pages 259-271.
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  16. Benjamin M. Friedman & David I. Laibson, 1989. "Economic Implications of Extraordinary Movements in Stock Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 20(2), pages 137-190.
  17. Dueker, Michael J, 1997. "Markov Switching in GARCH Processes and Mean-Reverting Stock-Market Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 26-34, January.
  18. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2007. "Dynamic Risk Exposure in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2007_17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  19. Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994. "Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
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  21. Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
  22. Bollen, Nicolas P. B. & Gray, Stephen F. & Whaley, Robert E., 2000. "Regime switching in foreign exchange rates: Evidence from currency option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 239-276.
  23. Gray, Stephen F., 1996. "Modeling the conditional distribution of interest rates as a regime-switching process," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-62, September.
  24. Francq, C. & Zakoian, J. -M., 2001. "Stationarity of multivariate Markov-switching ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 339-364, June.
  25. Carol Alexander & Anca Dimitriu, 2005. "Indexing, cointegration and equity market regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 213-231.
  26. Mark Mitchell, 2001. "Characteristics of Risk and Return in Risk Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2135-2175, December.
  27. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Loriana Pelizzon, 2006. "Phase-Locking and Switching Volatility in Hedge Funds," Working Papers 2006_54, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  28. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
  29. Vikas Agarwal, 2004. "Risks and Portfolio Decisions Involving Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 63-98.
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