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Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing

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Abstract

This paper presents an exchange rate forecasting model which combines the multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing techniques. The model outperforms a random walk at short horizons and its superior forecastability appears to be robust over different sample spans. Our finding hinges on the fact that exchange rates tend to follow highly persistent trends and accordingly, the key to beating the random walk is to identify these trends. An attempt to link the trends in exchange rates to the underlying macroeconomic determinants further reveals that fundamentals-based linear models generally fail to capture the persistence in exchange rates and thus are incapable of outforecasting the random walk.

Suggested Citation

  • Chunming Yuan, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: The Multi-State Markov-Switching Model with Smoothing," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-115, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:umb:econwp:09115
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    Cited by:

    1. Mirna Dumičić, 2014. "Financial Stress Indicators for Small, Open, Highly Euroised Countries – the Case of Croatia," Working Papers 41, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    2. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
    3. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2012. "The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows: Evidence from Africa's capital markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    4. Iván Cárdenas-Gallo & Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei & Mauricio Sánchez-Silva & Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, 2016. "A Markov regime-switching framework to forecast El Niño Southern Oscillation patterns," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 829-843, March.
    5. Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "On the directional accuracy of forecasts of emerging market exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 369-376.
    6. Samet Günay, 2015. "Markov Regime Switching Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Model and Volatility Modeling for Oil Returns," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 979-985.
    7. repec:ipf:finteo:v:39:y:2015:i:3:p:171-203 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Yu, Lean & Zhao, Yang & Tang, Ling, 2014. "A compressed sensing based AI learning paradigm for crude oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 236-245.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Forecasting; Markov-Switching; Smoothing; HP-Filter;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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