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Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?

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  • Miller, Marcus
  • Sutherland, Alan

Abstract

The view held by Keynes that there was a speculative appreciation of sterling prior to its return to the gold standard, has been challenged by Gregor Smith and Todd Smith, who argue that expectations of return must have weakened the currency. The authors demonstrate that the positive but decreasing trend displayed in the exchange rate data is consistent with a pattern of autoregressive convergence in fundamentals and that this continues to be true when there is a positive speculative element based on expectations of an early return. Hence, the key features of the data seem compatible with Keynes's views. Copyright 1994 by Royal Economic Society.

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  • Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-812, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:104:y:1994:i:425:p:804-12
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hans Dewachter & Dirk Veestraeten, 1999. "Measuring Convergence Speed of Asset Prices Toward a Pre-Announced Target," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces9902, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    2. R.D. Rossiter, 2002. "Term structure of forward exchange premiums: evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 33-47, January.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bordo, Michael D, 1998. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 122-149, January.
    4. Wilfling Bernd, 2003. "Interest Rate Volatility Prior to Monetary Union under Alternative Pre-Switch Regimes," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 4(4), pages 433-457, December.
    5. Anna Naszódi, 2008. "Are the exchange rates of EMU candidate countries anchored by their expected euro locking rates?," MNB Working Papers 2008/1, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    6. Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 240-270, March.
    7. Bernd Wilfling, 2003. "Interest Rate Volatility Prior to Monetary Union under Alternative Pre-Switch Regimes," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 433-457, November.
    8. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
    9. Meulemann, Max & Uebele, Martin & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 37-46.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Olivier Jeanne, 2000. "Currency Crisis and Unemployment: Sterling in 1931," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 7-43, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.
    12. Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2007. "Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-39, July.
    13. Wilfling, Bernd & Maennig, Wolfgang, 2001. "Exchange rate dynamics in anticipation of time-contingent regime switching: modelling the effects of a possible delay," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 91-113, February.
    14. Michael D. Bordo, 1995. "The Gold Standard as a `Good Housekeeping Seal of Approval'," NBER Working Papers 5340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.
    16. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "State- and time-contingent switches of exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 361-374, May.
    17. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Naszodi, Anna, 2011. "Exchange rate dynamics under state-contingent stochastic process switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 896-908, September.

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