Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals, combined with nonlinearity arising from expected future regime changes. Two applications yield evidence against the present-value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant.
|Date of creation:||Jul 1995|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||forthcoming in the Journal of International Money and Finance|
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"Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925,"
723, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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The Journal of Economic History,
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