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Exchange-Rate Discounting

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  • Smith, Gregor W.

Abstract

Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals, combined with nonlinearity arising from expected future regime changes. Two applications yield evidence against the present-value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-Rate Discounting," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 273747, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:273747
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.273747
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 537-551, May.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1991. "Target zones and interest rate variability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 27-54, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Gagnon, 2019. "Vanishing central bank intervention in stochastic impulse control," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 125-153, March.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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