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Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925

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  • Gregor W. Smith
  • R. Todd Smith

Abstract

We present numerical estimates of the effect on the dollar/sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s of anticipations of the return to the gold standard at pre-war parity in the U.K. These measures are calculated using a weak version of the monetary model of the exchange rate but are consistent with any exchange-rate fundamentals which follow a random walk with drift. Contrary to some contemporary views, the appreciation of the sterling prior to April 1925 appears to have been due mainly to fundamentals (such as restrictive monetary policy) rather than to the expectation of a change in regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor W. Smith & R. Todd Smith, 1988. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Working Paper 723, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    • Handle: RePEc:qed:wpaper:723
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    Cited by:

    1. Bordo, Michael D & Redish, Angela, 1993. "Maximizing Seignorage Revenue during Temporary Suspensions of Convertibility: A Note," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 157-168, January.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2015. "Back to Gold: Sterling in 1925," CEPR Discussion Papers 10761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Ichikawa, Masaki & Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1990. "Entering a preannounced currency band," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 363-368, December.
    4. Meulemann, Max & Uebele, Martin & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 37-46.
    5. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
    6. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.
    7. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.
    8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bordo, Michael D, 1998. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 122-149, January.
    9. Sutherland, A. & Miller, M., 1990. "Britain'S Return To Gold And Impending Entry Into The Ems: Expectations, Joining Conditions And Credibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 361, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    10. Mateusz Szczurek, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Nominal Convergence," Springer Books, in: Marek Dabrowski & Jacek Rostowski (ed.), The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone, chapter 0, pages 91-111, Springer.
    11. R.D. Rossiter, 2002. "Term structure of forward exchange premiums: evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 33-47, January.
    12. Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2015. "Back to gold: Sterling in 1925," CFS Working Paper Series 515, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    13. Robert P. Flood & Donald J. Mathieson & Andrew K. Rose, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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