IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/cfswop/515.html

Back to gold: Sterling in 1925

Author

Listed:
  • Gerlach, Stefan
  • Kugler, Peter

Abstract

Expectations of Sterling returning to Gold have been disregarded in empirical work on the US dollar - Sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s. We incorporate such considerations in a PPP model of the exchange rate, letting the probability of a return to gold follow a logistic function. We draw several conclusions: (i) the PPP model works well from spring 1919 to spring 1925; (ii) wholesale prices outperform consumer prices; (iii) allowing for a return to gold leads to a higher speed of adjustment of the exchange rate to PPP; (iv) interest rate differentials and the relative monetary base are crucial determinants of the expected return to gold; (v) the probability of a return to Gold peaked at about 72% in late 1924 and but fell to about 60% in early 1925; and (vi) our preferred model does not support the Keynes' view that Sterling was overvalued after the return to gold.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2015. "Back to gold: Sterling in 1925," CFS Working Paper Series 515, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/119409/1/835314340.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Clements, Kenneth W. & Frenkel, Jacob A., 1980. "Exchange rates, money, and relative prices: The dollar-pound in the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 249-262, May.
    2. Smith, Gregor W & Smith, R Todd, 1990. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 164-175, March.
    3. K. G. P. Matthews, 1986. "Was Sterling Overvalued in 192s?," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 39(4), pages 572-587, November.
    4. John Redmond, 1984. "The Sterling Overvaluation in 1925. A Multilateral Approach," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 37(4), pages 520-532, November.
    5. S. C. Tsiang, 1959. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates in Countries with Relatively Stable Economies: Some European Experiences after World War I," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(2), pages 244-273, October.
    6. J. Redmond, 1989. "Was sterling overvalued in 1925? A comment," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 42(1), pages 87-89, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Cifarelli & Paolo Paesani, 2024. "On the Relevance of the Purchasing Power Hypothesis as a Determinant of Exchange Rate Equilibrium in the Post WWI French Franc Floating Exchange Rate Period," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_24.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2015. "Back to Gold: Sterling in 1925," CEPR Discussion Papers 10761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bordo, Michael D & Redish, Angela, 1993. "Maximizing Seignorage Revenue during Temporary Suspensions of Convertibility: A Note," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 157-168, January.
    3. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    4. Meulemann, Max & Uebele, Martin & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 37-46.
    5. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    6. Mateusz Szczurek, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Nominal Convergence," Springer Books, in: Marek Dabrowski & Jacek Rostowski (ed.), The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone, chapter 0, pages 91-111, Springer.
    7. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kenneth Clements, 1981. "The monetary approach to exchange rate determination: A geometric analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 117(1), pages 20-29, March.
    10. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.
    11. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.
    12. Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, "undated". "Britain's Return to Gold and Impending Entry into the EMS: Expectations, Joining Conditions and Credibility," Economic Research Papers 268481, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    13. Wei Sun, 2006. "Why Do Floating Exchange Rates Float? Evidence From Capital Flows in a Structural VAR Model," EcoMod2006 272100092, EcoMod.
    14. M. Manzur, 1988. "Purchasing Power Parity and Relative Price Variability: The missing link?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 88-11, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Balázs Égert, 2012. "Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Models in South Africa: How Robust Are They?," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-18, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    16. Yin-Wong Cheung & Wenhao Wang & Frank Westermann, 2025. "An In-Sample Evaluation of Exchange Rate Models: In Search of Scapegoats," IEER Working Papers 125, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    17. Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
    18. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bordo, Michael D, 1998. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 122-149, January.
    19. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    20. Chinn, Menzie David, 1997. "Paper pushers or paper money? Empirical assessment of fiscal and monetary models of exchange rate determination," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-78, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifkcfde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.