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Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925

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  • Smith, Gregor W
  • Smith, R Todd

Abstract

The authors analyze and estimate the effect on the dollar/sterling exchange rate in the early 1920s of anticipations of the return to the gold standard at prewar parity in the United Kingdom. These measures are consistent with a class of models of the exchange rate that includes a version of the monetary model and with any fundamentals that follow a random walk with drift. Contrary to some contemporary views, the appreciation of sterling prior to April 1925 appears to have been due to fundamentals (such as restrictive monetary policy) rather than to the expectation of a change in regime. Copyright 1990 by Royal Economic Society.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Gregor W & Smith, R Todd, 1990. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 164-175, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:100:y:1990:i:399:p:164-75
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayoumi, Tamim & Bordo, Michael D, 1998. "Getting Pegged: Comparing the 1879 and 1925 Gold Resumptions," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 122-149, January.
    2. Bordo, Michael D & Redish, Angela, 1993. "Maximizing Seignorage Revenue during Temporary Suspensions of Convertibility: A Note," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 157-168, January.
    3. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose & Donald J. Mathieson, 1990. "Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones," International Finance Discussion Papers 388, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Sutherland, A. & Miller, M., 1990. "Britain'S Return To Gold And Impending Entry Into The Ems: Expectations, Joining Conditions And Credibility," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 361, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Mateusz Szczurek, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Nominal Convergence," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0266, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    6. R.D. Rossiter, 2002. "Term structure of forward exchange premiums: evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 33-47, January.
    7. Veestraeten, Dirk, 2012. "Transition probabilities in a problem of stochastic process switching," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 201-204.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2015. "Back to Gold: Sterling in 1925," CEPR Discussion Papers 10761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Ichikawa, Masaki & Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1990. "Entering a preannounced currency band," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 363-368, December.
    10. Jean-Sébastien Pentecôte & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change?. Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 69(1), pages 39-71.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 1994. "The Specie Standard as a Contingent Rule: Some Evidence for Core and Peripheral Countries, 1880-1990," NBER Working Papers 4860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Meulemann, Max & Uebele, Martin & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The restoration of the gold standard after the US Civil War: A volatility analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 37-46.
    13. Smith, Gregor W., 1995. "Exchange-rate discounting," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 659-666, October.
    14. Gerlach, Stefan & Kugler, Peter, 2015. "Back to gold: Sterling in 1925," CFS Working Paper Series 515, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

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