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Comment fixer les cours de change? Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes

  • Jean-Sébastien PENTECOTE

    (CERESUR, Université de la Réunion)

  • Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS

    (GRAPE, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux 4)

Cette étude revient sur la distinction établie entre deux règles de fixation irrévocable des cours de change : une règle temporelle suivant laquelle le gel de la parité est programmé à une date arbitraire; une règle d'état sous laquelle cette décision résulte de l'atteinte d'un seuil par les déterminants fondamentaux. En les replaçant dans un cadre d'analyse commun, ces stratégies apparaissent en fait rigoureusement équivalentes en l'absence d'incertitude sur le déroulement de la transition. Une correspondance en termes probabilistes est établie dans un contexte stochastique plus général. Ce cadre d'analyse unifié s'avère un préalable utile pour entreprendre une relecture de la stratégie maastrichtienne en matière cambiaire et mettre à jour certaines propriétés du scénario finalement adopté par les autorités européennes.

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Paper provided by Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) in its series Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) with number 2003012.

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Length: 33
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2003012
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  1. Krugman, Paul R, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-82, August.
  2. Charles R. Bean, 1992. "Economic and Monetary Union in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 31-52, Fall.
  3. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans & Veestraeten, Dirk, 1998. "Stochastic Process Switching and Stage III of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1783, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Paul Krugman & Marcus Miller, 1992. "Exchange Rate Targets and Currency Bands," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number krug92-1, October.
  5. Gregor W. Smith & R. Todd Smith, 1988. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Working Papers 723, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862–1879," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 697-717, September.
  7. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1998. "A strategy for launching the Euro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 975-1007, June.
  8. Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1983. "A Model of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 537-51, May.
  9. Kristen L. Willard & Timothy W. Guinnane & Harvey S. Rosen, 1995. "Turning Points in the Civil War: Views from the Greenback Market," NBER Working Papers 5381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Solution to a Problem of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 237-39, January.
  11. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977 Elsevier.
  12. Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-12, July.
  13. Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1990. "Britain's Return to Gold and Entry into the EMS: Expectations, Joining Conditions and Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "State- and time-contingent switches of exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 361-374, May.
  15. Djajic, Slobodan, 1989. "Dynamics of the exchange rate in anticipation of pegging," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 559-571, December.
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