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Comment fixer les cours de change? Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Sébastien PENTECOTE

    (CERESUR, Université de la Réunion)

  • Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS

    (GRAPE, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux 4)

Abstract

Cette étude revient sur la distinction établie entre deux règles de fixation irrévocable des cours de change : une règle temporelle suivant laquelle le gel de la parité est programmé à une date arbitraire; une règle d'état sous laquelle cette décision résulte de l'atteinte d'un seuil par les déterminants fondamentaux. En les replaçant dans un cadre d'analyse commun, ces stratégies apparaissent en fait rigoureusement équivalentes en l'absence d'incertitude sur le déroulement de la transition. Une correspondance en termes probabilistes est établie dans un contexte stochastique plus général. Ce cadre d'analyse unifié s'avère un préalable utile pour entreprendre une relecture de la stratégie maastrichtienne en matière cambiaire et mettre à jour certaines propriétés du scénario finalement adopté par les autorités européennes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Sébastien PENTECOTE & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS, 2003. "Comment fixer les cours de change? Annonces et correspondances maastrichtiennes," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2003012, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvre:2003012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    UEM; Règles temporelles et d’état; passage aux changes fixes;

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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