A Strategy for Launching the Euro
This paper analyses the constraints European Union law places on the 1 January 1999 choices of irrevocably fixed conversion rates between the euro and the currencies of EMU members states. Current EU legislation, notably the Maastricht Treaty, requires that the bilateral currency conversion factors implied by the 1 January 1999 choices equal closing market exchange rates on 31 December 1998. Given that legal constraint, there still exist several strategies for choosing the relative prices of EMU member currencies against the euro. Unfortunately, most of these have potentially damaging side effects. One approach, based on official Stage 2 offers of contingent euro forward contracts with value dates at the start of Stage 3, allows a highly credible preannouncement of the bilateral currency conversion factors to be set at the start of EMU. That approach assumes, however, that no prospective EMU members can withdraw between their selection in May 1998 and the start of Stage 3.
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References listed on IDEAS
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- De Grauwe, Paul, 1997. "The Indeterminacy of the Euro Conversion Rates. Why it Matters and How it can be Solved," CEPR Discussion Papers 1677, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- P. De Grauwe & L. Spaventa, 1997.
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- P. De Grauwe & L. Spaventa, 1997. "Setting conversion rates for the third stage of EMU," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(201), pages 131-146.
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- De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "How to Fix Conversion Rates at the Start of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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