Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals, combined with nonlinearity arising from expected future regime changes. Two applications yield evidence against the present-value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant.
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- Gregor W. Smith & R. Todd Smith, 1988.
"Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925,"
723, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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- Gregor W. Smith & R. Todd Smith, 1996.
"Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862-1879,"
1255, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862–1879," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 697-717, September.
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1230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-12, July.
- Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Solution to a Problem of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 237-39, January.
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