Economists often describe nominal exchange rates as forward-looking, so that they reflect discounted, expected, future fundamentals. This study applies a method for identifying the discount rate involved, without knowing or measuring fundamentals. Identification arises from assumptions on the stochastic process followed by fundamentals, combined with nonlinearity arising from expected future regime changes. Two applications yield evidence against the present-value model in the form of discount rates which are negative and statistically significant.
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- Smith, Gregor W. & Smith, R. Todd, 1997.
"Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862–1879,"
The Journal of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(03), pages 697-717, September.
- Gregor W. Smith & R. Todd Smith, 1996. "Greenback-Gold Returns and Expectations of Resumption, 1862-1879," Working Papers 1255, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Smith, Gregor W & Smith, R Todd, 1990.
"Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(399), pages 164-75, March.
- Gregor W. Smith & R. Todd Smith, 1988. "Stochastic Process Switching and the Return to Gold, 1925," Working Papers 723, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Smith, Gregor W, 1991. "Solution to a Problem of Stochastic Process Switching," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(1), pages 237-39, January.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985.
Handbook of International Economics,
in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977
- Miller, Marcus & Sutherland, Alan, 1994. "Speculative Anticipations of Sterling's Return to Gold: Was Keynes Wrong?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(425), pages 804-12, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & James M. Nason, 1989.
"Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Officer, Lawrence H., 1985. "Integration in the American Foreign-Exchange Market, 1791–1900," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(03), pages 557-585, September.
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