IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/1395.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU

Author

Listed:
  • De Grauwe, Paul

Abstract

The use of forward interest rates with a settlement time after the start of EMU (1 January 1999) allows us to derive probabilities attached by the market to the occurrence of EMU. We use the DM/ECU forward interest rates as our central source of information. We arrive at the conclusion that the market attaches a very low probability to the ECU being transformed into the Euro, with an irrevocably fixed exchange rate with the other EMU member countries, by 1999. We also compute the probabilities of entry into EMU for individual currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1395
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=1395
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000. "Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
    2. Robert McCauley, 1999. "The Euro and the Dollar, 1998," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 91-133, February.
    3. Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel & Cinca, Alfonso Novales, 2010. "State-uncertainty preferences and the risk premium in the exchange rate market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1043-1053, September.
    4. Livio Stracca, "undated". "Economics and Politics: Interest Rate Convergence in Europe and EMU," Discussion Papers in European Economics 99/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    5. Raphaelle Bellando & Servane Pfister & Jean-Paul Pollin, 2000. "Évolution et déterminants de la crédibilité de l’Union Monétaire Européenne durant la phase de transition : une étude comparative France, Italie et Grande-Bretagne," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 56(1), pages 165-194.
    6. Viktors Ajevskis & Kristine Vitola, 2010. "A Convergence Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(4), pages 727-747.
    7. Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 483-496.
    8. Wilfling, Bernd, 2009. "Volatility regime-switching in European exchange rates prior to monetary unification," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 240-270, March.
    9. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Markov-switching regimes and the monetary model of exchange rate determination: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 707-723.
    10. J. Weidmann, 1996. "The likelihood of European Monetary Union," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(199), pages 405-413.
    11. Bernardino Adao & Jorge Barros Luis, 2000. "Interest rate spreads implicit in options: Spain and Italy against Germany," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 155-161.
    12. Robert N. McCauley & William R. White, 1997. "The Euro and European financial markets," BIS Working Papers 41, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Bates, David S., 1999. "Financial markets' assessments of EMU," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 229-269, December.
    14. J. Weidmann, 1996. "The likelihood of European Monetary Union," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(199), pages 405-413.
    15. David S. Bates, 1999. "Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU," NBER Working Papers 6874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Integration;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1395. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.