A Convergence Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
This paper develops a convergence model of the term structure of interest rates in context of entering the European Monetary Union (EMU). Compared to other models developed so far in this field, our model specification ensures convergence of the domestic short-term interest rates to the euro area ones. We achieve this convergence by stating that the spread between domestic and euro short-term interest rate follows the Brownian bridge process. We also develop an econometric counterpart of the theoretical model. To tackle the problem of nonstationarity and nonlinearity of the model, we apply the extended Kalman filter for coefficient estimation. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.
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Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Guido Tabellini, 2000.
"Extracting information from asset prices: The methodology of EMU calculators,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 1607-1632, October.
- Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Fabrizio Iacone & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: the Methodology of EMU Calculators," Working Papers 113, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco & Iacone, Fabrizio & Tabellini, Guido, 1997. "Extracting Information from Asset Prices: The Methodology of EMU Calculators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "Forward Interest Rates as Predictors of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jesper Lund, 1999. "A Model for Studying the Effect of EMU on European Yield Curves," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(3), pages 321-363.
- Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
- Teresa Corzo Santamaria & E. S. Schwartz, 2000. "Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest Rates," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(2), pages 243-266, 07.
- Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 627-627, November.
- David S. Bates, 1999. "Financial Markets' Assessment of EMU," NBER Working Papers 6874, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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