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Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries

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  • Randall Fortenbery

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between New York coffee futures and cash export prices in Guatemala and Honduras . Cointegration tests suggest that the futures market is serving its price discovery function, and provides a vehicle by which to manage the domestic price risk in export countries. However, further analysis finds that as the percent of speculative open interest increases in the coffee futures market, price volatility increases. This suggests that cash market price risk in exporting countries may actually increase as a result of futures trading activity in developed country futures exchanges.
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Suggested Citation

  • Randall Fortenbery, 2004. "Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(4), pages 451-471, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:31:y:2004:i:4:p:451-471
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    Cited by:

    1. Zapata, T. Randall Fortenbery & Armstrong, Delroy, 2005. "Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Domincan Republic," Staff Paper Series 469, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    2. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Sushil Mohan & Bill Russell, 2008. "Modelling Thirty Five Years Of Coffee Prices In Brazil, Guatemala And India," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 221, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    4. Prera, Alejandro & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2016. "Risk Management: Hedging Potential for U.S. Breweries," 2016 Conference, April 18-19, 2016, St. Louis, Missouri 285849, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    5. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2012. "Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation," 2012 Conference, April 16-17, 2012, St. Louis, Missouri 285784, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    7. Park, Hwanil & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2007. "The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National Corn Price," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37565, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    8. Ling‐Yun He & Wen‐Si Xie, 2012. "Who has the final say?," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 379-390, August.
    9. Sushil Mohan, 2007. "Market-Based Price-Risk Management for Coffee Producers," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 199, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    10. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Li, Yingzi & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2013. "Do Speculators in Futures Markets Make Cash Markets More Volatile?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151296, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    12. Maurice, Noemie & Davis, Junior, 2011. "Unravelling the underlying causes of price volatility in world coffee and cocoa commodity markets," MPRA Paper 43813, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    13. Bozic, Marin & Fortenbery, T., 2015. "Price Discovery, Volatility Spillovers and Adequacy of Speculation when Spot Prices are Stationary: The Case of U.S. Dairy Markets," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211369, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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