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Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Dominican Republic

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  • Zapata, Hector O.
  • Fortenbery, T. Randall
  • Armstrong, Delroy

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between #11 sugar futures prices traded in New York and the world cash prices for exported sugar. It was found that the futures market for sugar leads the cash market in price discovery. However, we fail to find evidence that changes in the cash price causes changes in futures price, that is, causality is unidirectional from futures to cash. The finding of cointegration between futures and cash prices suggests that the sugar futures contract is a useful vehicle for reducing overall market price risk faced by cash market participants selling at the world price (i.e., not enjoying favorable trade incentives). Further reliability on the usefulness of the WSF as a price discovery market is found through the impulse response functions; a shock in the futures price innovation generates a quick (one month) and positive response in futures and cash prices; but not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Zapata, Hector O. & Fortenbery, T. Randall & Armstrong, Delroy, 2005. "Price Discovery in the World Sugar Futures and Cash Markets: Implications for the Dominican Republic," Staff Papers 12657, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wisagr:12657
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.12657
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    1. Randall Fortenbery, 2004. "Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 31(4), pages 451-471, December.
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    2. Covindassamy, Genevre & Robe, Michel A. & Wallen, Jonathan, 2016. "Sugar With Your Coffee?: Financials, Fundamentals, and Soft Price Uncertainty," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8588, Inter-American Development Bank.
    3. Onofrio Panzarino & Francesco Potente & Alfonso Puorro, 2016. "BTP futures and cash relationships: a high frequency data analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1083, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Sari, Ramazan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Causality between market liquidity and depth for energy and grains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1683-1692.
    5. Chang, Chia-Lin & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & McAleer, Michael, 2012. "Asymmetric adjustments in the ethanol and grains markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1990-2002.
    6. Fizaine, Florian, 2015. "Minor metals and organized markets: News highlights about the consequences of establishing a futures market in a thin market with a dual trading price system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 59-70.
    7. Sendhil, R. & Kar, Amit & Mathur, V.C. & Jha, Girish K., 2013. "Price Discovery, Transmission and Volatility: Evidence from Agricultural Commodity Futures," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(01), June.
    8. Hammoudeh, S.M. & Sarafrazi, S. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2011. "The Dynamics of Energy-Grain Prices with Open Interest," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2011-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. P., Srinivasan, 2011. "Price Discovery and Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Commodity Market," MPRA Paper 47412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Elumalai, K. & Rangasamy, N. & Sharma, R.K., 2009. "Price Discovery in India’s Agricultural Commodity Futures Markets," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 64(3), pages 1-9.
    11. P. Srinivasan & P. Ibrahim, 2012. "Price Discovery and Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers in Indian Spot-Futures Gold Markets," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 5(3), pages 65-80, December.
    12. Pedro Linhares Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello, 2014. "The Fourth Dimension: Derivatives As A Form Of Capital," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    13. Ricardo de Medeiros Carneiro & Pedro Rossi & Guilherme Santos Mello & Marcos Vinicius Chiliatto-Leite, 2015. "The Fourth Dimension," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 641-662, December.
    14. Kerry McCullough & Barry Strydom, 2013. "The efficiency of the South African white maize futures market," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 18-33, September.

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    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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