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The Spot-Forward Relationship in the Atlantic Salmon Market

Author

Listed:
  • Asche, Frank

    (UiS)

  • Misund, Bard

    (UiS)

  • Oglend, Atle

    (UiS)

Abstract

This study examines the Fish Pool salmon futures contract with respect to how well the market performs in terms of the futures price being an unbiased estimator of the spot price and whether the market provide a price discovery function. Using data for 2006-2014 and with futures prices with maturities up to 6 months we find that spot and lagged futures prices are cointegrated and that the futures price provides an unbiased estimate of the spot price. We also find that, with the exception of the front month, that the causality is one-directional. The spot prices lead futures prices between 1 to 6 months maturity. Hence, while the spot and lagged futures prices are unbiased estimates, we do not find support for the hypothesis that futures prices provides a price discovery function. Rather, it seems that innovations in the spot price influence futures prices. This finding is not uncommon in new and immature futures contracts markets. Hence, the salmon futures market is still immature and has not yet reached the stage where futures prices are able to predict future spot prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Asche, Frank & Misund, Bard & Oglend, Atle, 2015. "The Spot-Forward Relationship in the Atlantic Salmon Market," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/16, University of Stavanger.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2015_016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Atle Oglend & Hans‐Martin Straume, 2020. "Futures market hedging efficiency in a new futures exchange: Effects of trade partner diversification," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 617-631, April.
    2. Misund, Bård, 2015. "Financial Ratios and Prediction on Corporate Bankruptcy in the Atlantic Salmon Industry," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/9, University of Stavanger.
    3. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bard, 2015. "Hedging Efficiency of Atlantic Salmon Futures," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/12, University of Stavanger.
    4. Misund, Bard, 2016. "Common and Fundamental Risk Factors in Shareholder Returns of Norwegian Salmon Producing Companies," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/17, University of Stavanger.
    5. Vårdal, Erling & Asche, Frank & Straume, Hans-Martin, 2017. "Perish or prosper: Trade patterns for highly perishable products," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 261278, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Misund, Bård, 2018. "Common and fundamental risk factors in shareholder returns of Norwegian salmon producing companies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 19-30.
    7. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bard & Oglend, Atle, 2015. "Production Risk and the Futures Price Risk Premium?," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/13, University of Stavanger.
    8. Anderson, James L. & Asche, Frank & Garlock, Taryn, 2018. "Globalization and commoditization: The transformation of the seafood market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 2-8.
    9. Dahl, Roy Endré & Jonsson, Erlendur, 2018. "Volatility spillover in seafood markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 44-59.
    10. Schütz, Peter & Westgaard, Sjur, 2018. "Optimal hedging strategies for salmon producers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 60-70.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Atlantic salmon; futures prices; price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery

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