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Do individual index futures investors destabilize the underlying spot market?

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  • Martin T. Bohl
  • Christian A. Salm
  • Bernd Wilfling

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of introducing index futures trading on the volatility of the underlying stock market. We exploit a unique institutional setting in which presumably uninformed individuals are the dominant trader type in the futures markets. This enables us to investigate the destabilization hypothesis more accurately than previous studies do and to provide evidence for or against the influence of individuals trading in index futures on spot market volatility. To overcome econometric shortcomings of the existing literature we employ a Markov‐switching‐GARCH approach to endogenously identify distinct volatility regimes. Our empirical evidence for Poland suggests that the introduction of index futures trading does not destabilize the spot market. This finding is robust across three stock market indices and is corroborated by further analysis of a control group. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:81–101, 2011

Suggested Citation

  • Martin T. Bohl & Christian A. Salm & Bernd Wilfling, 2011. "Do individual index futures investors destabilize the underlying spot market?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(1), pages 81-101, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:31:y:2011:i:1:p:81-101
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    Cited by:

    1. Bohl, Martin T. & Diesteldorf, Jeanne & Siklos, Pierre L., 2015. "The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 207-224.
    2. Basheer Ahmad & Usman Ali Warraich & Sidra Saeed, 2014. "Impact Of Investor Sentiments On Future Trading," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 10(2), pages 16-32.
    3. Imtiaz Mohammad Sifat & Azhar Mohamad & Kevin Reinaldo Amin, 2021. "Intertemporal price discovery between stock index futures and spot markets: New evidence from high‐frequency data," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 898-913, January.
    4. Martin T. Bohl & Jeanne Diesteldorf & Christian A. Salm & Bernd Wilfling, 2016. "Spot Market Volatility and Futures Trading: The Pitfalls of Using a Dummy Variable Approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 30-45, January.
    5. Judge, Amrit & Reancharoen, Tipprapa, 2014. "An empirical examination of the lead–lag relationship between spot and futures markets: Evidence from Thailand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 335-358.
    6. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Shao, Hao-Lin & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2019. "Time-varying lead–lag structure between the crude oil spot and futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 723-733.
    7. Kumar, Satish, 2018. "Price discovery in emerging currency markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 528-536.
    8. Kumar, S.S.S. & Sampath, Aravind, 2019. "What drives the off-shore futures market? Evidence from India and China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 394-402.
    9. Kai Wu & Yi Liu & Weiyang Feng, 2022. "The Effect of Index Option Trading on Stock Market Volatility in China: An Empirical Investigation," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-19, March.
    10. Mustafa Okur & Emrah Cevik, 2013. "Testing Intraday Volatility Spillovers in Turkish Capital Markets: Evidence from Ise," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 99-116, January.
    11. Atilgan, Yigit & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Simsek, Koray D., 2016. "Derivative markets in emerging economies: A survey," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 88-102.
    12. Asche, Frank & Misund, Bard & Oglend, Atle, 2015. "The Spot-Forward Relationship in the Atlantic Salmon Market," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/16, University of Stavanger.
    13. Gerrit Reher & Bernd Wilfling, 2016. "A nesting framework for Markov-switching GARCH modelling with an application to the German stock market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 411-426, March.
    14. Basheer Ahmad & Usman Ali Warraich & Sidra Saeed, 2014. "Impact Of Investor Sentiments On Future Trading," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 10(2), pages 10-12.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Zekokh, Timur, 2019. "Modelling volatility of cryptocurrencies using Markov-Switching GARCH models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 143-155.
    16. Sanjay Sehgal & Mala Dutt, 2016. "Domestic and international information linkages between NSE Nifty spot and futures markets: an empirical study for India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 43(3), pages 239-258, September.
    17. Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    18. Lee, Chyi Lin & Stevenson, Simon & Cho, Hyunbum, 2022. "Listed real estate futures trading, market efficiency, and direct real estate linkages: International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    19. Karabiyik, Hande & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Westerlund, Joakim, 2018. "Islamic spot and index futures markets: Where is the price discovery?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 123-133.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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