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Forecasting realised volatility using regime-switching models

Author

Listed:
  • Ding, Yi
  • Kambouroudis, Dimos
  • McMillan, David G.

Abstract

This paper extends standard AR and HAR models for realised volatility (RV) forecasting to include nonlinearity through two broad regime-switching approaches, the smooth transition and Markov-switching methods. Using daily data for eight international stock markets over the period 2007–2021, a comprehensive comparison is provided using a range of forecast tests that includes statistical and economic (risk management) based metrics. The results show that regime-switching models provide a better in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecasting, although this latter result is less clear-cut at the daily horizon. In comparing the two nonlinear approaches, we find that the abrupt transition technique of the Markov-switching model is preferred to the smooth transition one. It is believed that our results will be of interest to those especially engaged in risk management practice as well as for those modelling market behaviour.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Yi & Kambouroudis, Dimos & McMillan, David G., 2025. "Forecasting realised volatility using regime-switching models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:101:y:2025:i:c:s105905602500334x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2025.104171
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realised volatility; Non-linearity; Regime switching; Value at risk; Expected shortfall;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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