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Spot and Futures Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Fundamentals and Speculation

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  • Baldi, Lucia
  • Peri, Massimo
  • Vandone, Daniela

Abstract

This paper investigates the long-run relationship between spot and futures prices for corn and soybeans, for the period January 2004 -September 2010. We apply cointegration methodology in the presence of potentially unknown structural breaks in the commodities prices and we then study the causality relationships between spot and futures prices within each specific sub-period identified, with the aim to analyze where changes in spot and futures price originate and how they spread. Empirical estimates highlight the following evidence: i) breaks relate to events that have significantly affected the supply and demand of corn and soybeans for food and energy purposes; ii) subperiods consequently identified express different dynamics in the causal relationship between spot and futures prices and support the idea that many factors contributed to the 2007-2008 food price increase

Suggested Citation

  • Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2011. "Spot and Futures Prices of Agricultural Commodities: Fundamentals and Speculation," 2011 International European Forum, February 14-18, 2011, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 122002, International European Forum on Innovation and System Dynamics in Food Networks.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iefi11:122002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Adämmer & Martin T. Bohl, 2015. "Price Discovery in European Agricultural Markets: When Do Futures Contracts Matter?," CQE Working Papers 4415, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    2. Fizaine, Florian, 2015. "Minor metals and organized markets: News highlights about the consequences of establishing a futures market in a thin market with a dual trading price system," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 59-70.
    3. Ling-Yun He & Wen-Si Xie, 2012. "Who has the final say?: Market power versus price discovery in China's sugar spot and futures markets," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(3), pages 379-390, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity; futures markets; price discovery; cointegration; structural breaks; Agribusiness; Agricultural and Food Policy; Productivity Analysis; C32; G13; G14; Q11;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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