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Modelling Thirty Five Years Of Coffee Prices In Brazil, Guatemala And India

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Listed:
  • Sushil Mohan
  • Bill Russell

Abstract

Over the past thirty five years coffee markets have been subject to market controls and regulations culminating in the liberalisation of coffee markets in the early 1990s. This paper models the relationship between the producers’ and world prices of coffee in Brazil, Guatemala and India allowing for the effects of changes in market structures. We find that liberalisation has benefited producers substantially in terms of higher real coffee prices and a higher share of the world price of coffee.

Suggested Citation

  • Sushil Mohan & Bill Russell, 2008. "Modelling Thirty Five Years Of Coffee Prices In Brazil, Guatemala And India," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 221, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  • Handle: RePEc:dun:dpaper:221
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    File URL: http://www.dundee.ac.uk/media/dundeewebsite/economicstudies/documents/discussion/DDPE_221.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Randall Fortenbery, 2004. "Developed speculation and underdeveloped markets--the role of futures trading on export prices in less developed countries," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 451-471, December.
    3. Krivonos, Ekaterina, 2004. "The impact of coffee market reforms on producer prices and price transmission," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3358, The World Bank.
    4. McNew, Kevin, 1996. "Spatial Market Integration: Definition, Theory, And Evidence," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April.
    5. Sushil Mohan, 2007. "Market-based Price-risk Management for Coffee Producers," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(3), pages 333-354, May.
    6. McNew, Kevin, 1996. "Spatial Market Integration: Definition, Theory, and Evidence," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(01), pages 1-11, April.
    7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    8. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    9. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    10. Varangis, Panos & Larson, Donald & Anderson, Jack R., 2002. "Agricultural markets and risks - management of the latter, not the former," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2793, The World Bank.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    12. Abdulai, Awudu, 2000. "Spatial price transmission and asymmetry in the Ghanaian maize market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 327-349, December.
    13. Badiane, Ousmane & Shively, Gerald E., 1998. "Spatial integration, transport costs, and the response of local prices to policy changes in Ghana," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 411-431, August.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    coffee prices; cointegration; coffee markets; liberalisation; coffee producers; transfer costs;

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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