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The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence

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  • Yu Xin
  • Gongmeng Chen
  • Michael Firth

Abstract

This study investigates the efficiency of the Chinese metal futures (i. e. copper and aluminum) traded on China's Shanghai Futures Exchange. First, we thoroughly analyze the development of China's commodity futures markets, which provides a fundamental background. Then we examine the random walk and unbiasedness hypotheses for two metal futures during 1999–2004. Based on the empirical evidence, we argue that China's copper and aluminum futures markets are efficient, and that they aid the process of price discovery because futures prices can be considered as unbiased predictors of future spot prices. We attribute this efficiency to the regulatory changes made in 1999 and the increased financial skills and acumen of the participants in the market. Edited by Xiaoming Feng

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Xin & Gongmeng Chen & Michael Firth, 2006. "The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 79-92, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:14:y:2006:i:2:p:79-92
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2006.00016.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanjay Sehgal & Asheesh Pandey, 2012. "Strategic Allocation, Asset Pricing and Prior Return Patterns: Evidence from Indian Commodity Market," Vision, , vol. 16(4), pages 273-281, December.
    2. Takeshi Inoue & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2014. "Market efficiency of commodity futures in India," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 522-527, May.
    3. Ye, Wuyi & Guo, Ranran & Jiang, Ying & Liu, Xiaoquan & Deschamps, Bruno, 2019. "Professional macroeconomic forecasts and Chinese commodity futures prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 130-136.
    4. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2019. "Night Trading with Futures in China: The Case of Aluminum and Copper," QBS Working Paper Series 2019/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    5. Narinder Pal Singh & Archana Singh, 2017. "Empirical Investigation on Food Inflation and Efficiency Issues in Indian Agri-futures Market," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 156-165, November.
    6. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    7. Brooks, Robert & Brooks, Joshua A., 2022. "Samuelson hypothesis and carry arbitrage: U.S. and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. John Hua Fan & Tingxi Zhang, 2020. "The untold story of commodity futures in China," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 671-706, April.
    9. Aruga, Kentaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2011. "Price linkages in the copper futures, primary, and scrap markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-47.
    10. Liu, Qingfu & An, Yunbi, 2014. "Risk contributions of trading and non-trading hours: Evidence from Chinese commodity futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 17-29.
    11. Kumar Ravi & Dhiman Babli, 2022. "Indian and Chinese Metal Futures Markets: A Linkage Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, September.
    12. Xindan Li & Bing Zhang, 2008. "Price linkages between Chinese and world copper futures markets," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 3(3), pages 451-461, September.
    13. Liu, Qingfu & Wong, Ieokhou & An, Yunbi & Zhang, Jinqing, 2014. "Asymmetric Information and Volatility Forecasting in Commodity Futures Markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 79-97.
    14. Zhiyong Tu & Min Song & Liang Zhang, 2013. "Emerging Impact of Chinese Commodity Futures Market on Domestic and Global Economy," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 21(6), pages 79-99, November.
    15. Guo, Yaoqi & Yao, Shanshan & Cheng, Hui & Zhu, Wensong, 2020. "China's copper futures market efficiency analysis: Based on nonlinear Granger causality and multifractal methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

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