IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/36089.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price Linkages in the Copper Futures, Primary, and Scrap Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Aruga, Kentaka
  • Managi, Shunsuke

Abstract

This study investigates how markets for different levels of copper purity are interrelated by testing the long-run price linkage and causalities among the copper futures, primary, copper scrap, and brass scrap markets. It is expected that copper markets that deal with high purity levels, such as the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets, have a long-run relationship. However, brass scrap markets where copper with a lower purity is traded may not have a price linkage with other copper markets. The results reveal that a long-run relationship holds between the futures, primary, and copper scrap markets but the brass scrap market does not have a long-run relationship with the other markets. From the short-run and long-run causality tests, we determine that the futures market plays an important role in transmitting price information to other copper markets while such information flow is not found for the brass scrap market.

Suggested Citation

  • Aruga, Kentaka & Managi, Shunsuke, 2011. "Price Linkages in the Copper Futures, Primary, and Scrap Markets," MPRA Paper 36089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36089
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/36089/1/MPRA_paper_36089.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xindan Li & Bing Zhang, 2009. "Price discovery for copper futures in informationally linked markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1555-1558.
    2. Xiarchos, Irene M. & Fletcher, Jerald J., 2009. "Price and volatility transmission between primary and scrap metal markets," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 53(12), pages 664-673.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. Yu Xin & Gongmeng Chen & Michael Firth, 2006. "The Efficiency of the Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: Development and Empirical Evidence," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(2), pages 79-92, March.
    5. Tilton, John E. & Lagos, Gustavo, 2007. "Assessing the long-run availability of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 19-23.
    6. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "Futures market efficiency: Evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 577-589, October.
    7. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    8. Kentaka Aruga & Shunsuke Managi, 2011. "Tests on price linkage between the U.S. and Japanese gold and silver futures markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1038-1046.
    9. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Tim Krehbiel & Lee C. Adkins, 1993. "Cointegration tests of the unbiased expectations hypothesis in metals markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(7), pages 753-763, October.
    12. Renhai Hua & Baizhu Chen, 2007. "International linkages of the Chinese futures markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(16), pages 1275-1287.
    13. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    14. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Yinghui & Chen, Shan & Li, Haoran & Sun, Qingru & Chen, Hanyu & Yu, Hui, 2023. "Causality inference among base metal, rare metal and precious metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Tomas Brabenec & Josef Montag, 2016. "Criminals and the Price System: Evidence from Czech Metal Thieves," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp558, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    3. Donghua Wang & Yang Xin & Xiaohui Chang & Xingze Su, 2021. "Realized volatility forecasting and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Chinese non‐ferrous metals futures," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2713-2731, April.
    4. Rivera, Nilza & Guzmán, Juan Ignacio & Jara, José Joaquín & Lagos, Gustavo, 2021. "Evaluation of econometric models of secondary refined copper supply," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    5. Shaoqiang Ma & Min Fang & Xin Zhou, 2023. "China’s Embodied Copper Flow from the Demand-Side and Production-Side Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Buncic, Daniel & Moretto, Carlo, 2015. "Forecasting copper prices with dynamic averaging and selection models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-38.
    7. Simic, Vladimir & Dimitrijevic, Branka, 2013. "Risk explicit interval linear programming model for long-term planning of vehicle recycling in the EU legislative context under uncertainty," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 197-210.
    8. Todorova, Neda & Worthington, Andrew & Souček, Michael, 2014. "Realized volatility spillovers in the non-ferrous metal futures market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 21-31.
    9. Todorova, Neda, 2015. "The course of realized volatility in the LME non-ferrous metal market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Spillovers, integration and causality in LME non-ferrous metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    11. Arık, Evren & Mutlu, Elif, 2014. "Chinese steel market in the post-futures period," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 10-17.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wu, Jyh-lin, 1998. "Are budget deficits "too large"?: The evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 519-528.
    2. Ebenezer, Appiah Collins & Jatoe, John Baptist D. & Mensa-Bonsu, Akwasi, 2018. "Food Price Sensitivity To Changes In Petroleum Price And Exchange Rate In Ghana: A Cointegration Analysis," 2018 Conference (2nd), August 8-11, Kumasi, Ghana 277791, Ghana Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2016. "The Effects of Chinese Interest Rates and Inflation: A Decomposition of The Fisher Effect," MPRA Paper 78160, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    4. W. David Walls & Kelly Busche, 1996. "Betting volume and market efficiency in Hong Kong race track betting," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(12), pages 783-787.
    5. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
    6. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2017. "On the Effects of the BRICS on World Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 81757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    7. Vuyyuri, S., 2004. "Linkages of Indian Interest Rates with US and Japanese Rates," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    8. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2003. "Time-series Econometrics: Cointegration and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2003-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    9. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 739-750, October.
    10. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Impossible Trinity and Financial Markets – An Examination of Inflation Volatility Spillovers," MPRA Paper 77923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    11. David Hendry, 1995. "On the interactions of unit roots and exogeneity," Economics Papers 7., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    12. Shashi Gupta & Himanshu Choudhary & D. R. Agarwal, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis of Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Indian Commodity Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 771-789, June.
    13. Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, March.
    14. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    15. Bingham, Matthew F. & Prestemon, Jeffrey P. & MacNair, Douglas J. & Abt, Robert C. & Bingham, Matthew F., 2003. "Market structure in U. S. southern pine roundwood," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 97-117.
    16. Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 1995. "Partial versus full system modelling of cointegrated systems an empirical illustration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 177-210, September.
    17. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
    19. Murthy, N. R. Vasudeva & Phillips, Joseph M., 1996. "The relationship between budget deficits and capital inflows: Further econometric evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 485-494.
    20. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    futures market; copper scrap; brass scrap; cointegration; causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • L61 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Metals and Metal Products; Cement; Glass; Ceramics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.