Time-varying risk premium: further evidence in agricultural futures markets
Research has provided mixed results regarding the presence of a time-varying risk premium in agricultural futures markets. In this article we test for the presence of a time-varying risk premium focusing on the properties of the underlying data. Our results show that accounting for the structural break in the 1970s plays a key role in the findings. In contrast to recent research, we find only limited evidence of time-varying risk premium. For a two-month horizon the corn, soybean meal and hog markets show no signs of a risk premium, while very weak support for a time-varying premium emerges in live cattle. For the four-month horizon, no evidence of a time-varying risk premium appears for any of the markets.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December.
- Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983.
"Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-78, August.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin A., 1982. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt7d48x9qc, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Rausser, Gordon C. & Carter, Colin, 1981. "Futures market efficiency in the soybean complex," CUDARE Working Paper Series 139R, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
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