IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/319a41dd-cefc-4842-b4e7-1c78fe7264db.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical tests of a simple pricing model for sugar futures

Author

Listed:
  • Nijman, T.E.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Beetsma, R.M.W.J.

Abstract

In this paper we test the empirical implications of a simple pricing model for commodity futures for the marginal process of prices of sugar futures. According to the pricing model, the futures price bias depends linearly on the conditional variance. We find significant coefficients, from monthly as well as daily data, if the conditional variance is modelled using the GARCH-M model. These estimates imply contango in the futures marked and a net hedging demand on the long side of it.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowe
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Nijman, T.E. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J., 1990. "Empirical tests of a simple pricing model for sugar futures," Other publications TiSEM 319a41dd-cefc-4842-b4e7-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:319a41dd-cefc-4842-b4e7-1c78fe7264db
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/1145289/TNRB5618314.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    2. Bomze, I.M. & van Damme, E.E.C., 1990. "A dynamical characterization of evolutionarily stable states," Discussion Paper 1990-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Jurg, A.P. & García-Jurado, I. & Borm, P.E.M., 1992. "On modifications of the concepts of perfect and proper equilibria," Other publications TiSEM b06a7e2d-b824-4a92-b577-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Kapteyn, Arie & de Zeeuw, Aart, 1991. "Changing incentives for economic research in the Netherlands," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(2-3), pages 603-611, April.
    5. Nijman, T.E. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 1992. "The optimal choice of controls and pre-experimental observations," Other publications TiSEM 443af0b5-a4b6-4b63-b324-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Maschler, M. & Potters, J.A.M. & Tijs, S.H., 1992. "The general nucleolus and the reduced game property," Other publications TiSEM ab187dab-1b5b-40c3-a673-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Bester, Helmut, 1992. "Bertrand Equilibrium in a Differentiated Duopoly," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(2), pages 433-448, May.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Nijman, Theo & Verbeek, Marno, 1992. "The optimal choice of controls and pre-experimental observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 183-189.
    10. Peter Kooreman & Arie Kapteyn, 1990. "On the Empirical Implementation of Some Game Theoretic Models of Household Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 25(4), pages 584-598.
    11. Raa, Thijs ten & Wolff, Edward N., 1991. "Secondary products and the measurement of productivity growth," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 581-615, December.
    12. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Schmitz, Andrew, 1983. "Efficient Asset Portfolios and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 319-331, April.
    13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    14. Marini, Giancarlo & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1988. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy in an Optimising Model with Capital Accumulation and Finite Lives," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(392), pages 772-786, September.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    16. Weiss, Andrew A., 1986. "Asymptotic Theory for ARCH Models: Estimation and Testing," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 107-131, April.
    17. Nijman, Theo & Verbeek, Marno, 1992. "Nonresponse in Panel Data: The Impact on Estimates of a Life Cycle Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 243-257, July-Sept.
    18. Greenberg, Joseph, 1992. "On the Sensitivity of von Neumann and Morgenstern Abstract Stable Sets: The Stable and the Individual Stable Bargaining Set," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 21(1), pages 41-55.
    19. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    20. Maschler, M & Potters, J A M & Tijs, S H, 1992. "The General Nucleolus and the Reduced Game Property," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 21(1), pages 85-106.
    21. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    22. Talman, A.J.J. & Kamiya, K., 1991. "Simplicial algorithm for computing a core element in a balanced game," Other publications TiSEM 00c6842f-4377-4801-b1fc-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    23. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1983. "Hedger Diversity in Futures Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(37), pages 370-389, June.
    24. Dusak, Katherine, 1973. "Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(6), pages 1387-1406, Nov.-Dec..
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karl Wärneryd, 1993. "Anarchy, Uncertainty, And The Emergence Of Property Rights," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, March.
    2. Muto, S., 1994. "On licensing policies in Bertrand competition," Other publications TiSEM ef5dd5db-f744-4695-b669-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
    4. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data," Other publications TiSEM 0c1ff78c-d484-43bb-bcc3-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bera, A.K. & Lee, S., 1993. "Information matrix test, parameter heterogeneity and ARCH : A synthesis," Other publications TiSEM bf71e9fe-03a8-48f0-8a72-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    3. Bauer, Rob M M J & Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C, 1994. "German Stock Market Dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 397-418.
    4. Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. "Threshold Modelling of Stock Return Volatility on Eastern European Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 107-125.
    5. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    6. Demos, Antonis & Sentana, Enrique, 1998. "Testing for GARCH effects: a one-sided approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 97-127, June.
    7. Font, Begoña, 1998. "Modelización de series temporales financieras. Una recopilación," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3664, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    8. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November.
    9. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, October.
    10. Zou, L., 1993. "Ownership structure and efficiency : An incentive mechanism approach," Other publications TiSEM a72a05c2-b3f2-47c7-a003-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data," Discussion Paper 1991-68, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Verbeek, M.J.C.M. & Nijman, T.E., 1993. "Incomplete panels and selection bias : A survey," Other publications TiSEM 08061352-957b-4f56-b303-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    13. Nour Meddahi & Eric Renault, 1998. "Quadratic M-Estimators for ARCH-Type Processes," CIRANO Working Papers 98s-29, CIRANO.
    14. Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J., 1996. "Efficient Estimation in Semiparametric GARCH Models," Other publications TiSEM 3da5ac9e-1f93-41b2-aaa0-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    16. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    17. Verbon, H.A.A. & Verhoeven, M.J.M., 1993. "Decision making on pension schemes under rational expectations," Other publications TiSEM c3143bc8-ccb5-473d-9a6b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. McMillan, David G. & Speight, Alan E. H., 2001. "Non-ferrous metals price volatility: a component analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 199-207, September.
    19. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September.
    20. Gregory, Allan W, 1989. "A Nonparametric Test for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity: A Markov-Chain Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(1), pages 107-115, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:319a41dd-cefc-4842-b4e7-1c78fe7264db. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.