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New Evidence on Agricultural Commodity Return Performance under Time-Varying Risk

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  • Bruce Bjornson
  • Colin A. Carter

Abstract

Holding commodity stocks is a major investment that commodity producers, merchants, and processors must continually manage. In this paper we study the conditional risk and return characteristics of commodities. We use a generalized method of moments estimator in a model of conditional expected returns under a single-beta asset pricing theory framework, allowing both the risk premium and the beta to vary with time. We find that expected returns to commodities are lower during times of high interest rates, expected inflation, and economic growth. This suggests that commodities provide a natural hedge against business cycles. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Bruce Bjornson & Colin A. Carter, 1997. "New Evidence on Agricultural Commodity Return Performance under Time-Varying Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(3), pages 918-930.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:79:y:1997:i:3:p:918-930
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1244432
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nelson, Forrest D., 1984. "Efficiency of the two-step estimator for models with endogenous sample selection," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 181-196.
    2. Hartman, Raymond S, 1991. "A Monte Carlo Analysis of Alternative Estimators in Models Involving Selectivity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 41-49, January.
    3. Daniel Solís & Boris E. Bravo-Ureta & Ricardo E. Quiroga, 2007. "Soil conservation and technical efficiency among hillside farmers in Central America: a switching regression model ," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(4), pages 491-510, December.
    4. James Heckman & Justin L. Tobias & Edward Vytlacil, 2001. "Four Parameters of Interest in the Evaluation of Social Programs," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 210-223, October.
    5. Michael Lokshin & Zurab Sajaia, 2004. "Maximum likelihood estimation of endogenous switching regression models," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 4(3), pages 282-289, September.
    6. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    7. David W. Carter & J. Walter Milon, 2005. "Price Knowledge in Household Demand for Utility Services," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(2).
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    Cited by:

    1. Sadorsky, Perry, 2002. "Time-varying risk premiums in petroleum futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 539-556, November.
    2. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 44(03), August.
    3. Lin, Hua & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2006. "Risk Premiums and the Storage of Agricultural Commodities," Staff Paper Series 504, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Kovacevic, Ivo & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2015. "Expected commodity returns and pricing models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 60-71.
    5. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, pages 1-31.
    6. Cochran, Steven J. & Mansur, Iqbal & Odusami, Babatunde, 2012. "Volatility persistence in metal returns: A FIGARCH approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 287-305.
    7. Mukherjee, Dr. Kedar nath, 2011. "Commodity investments: opportunities for Indian institutional investors," MPRA Paper 33510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gonzalo Cortazar & Ivo Kovacevic & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2013. "Commodity and Asset Pricing Models: An Integration," NBER Working Papers 19167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Changyun Wang, 2003. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
    10. repec:eee:empfin:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:250-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Charoula Daskalaki & George Skiadopoulos & Nikolas Topaloglou, 2016. "Diversification Benefits of Commodities: A Stochastic Dominance Efficiency Approach," Working Papers 797, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "Have food and financial markets integrated? An empirical assessment on aggregate data," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156108, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    13. Carter, Colin A., 1999. "Commodity futures markets: a survey," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 43(2).

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