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Commodity Prices Revisited

  • Tomek, William G.
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    Empirical models of commodity prices are potentially important aids to decision-makers, especially as the economy has grown more complex. A typical time series of commodity prices exhibits positive autocorrelation, occasional spikes, and random variability, and conceptual models have been developed to explain this behavior. But, the leap from theory to empirical applications is large because of model specification and data quality problems. When modeling price expectations, for example, should a price series be deflated and if so, by what deflator? The choice can have a large effect on empirical results. Nonetheless, it is possible in some applications to obtain relatively stable-estimates of structural parameters that are useful for addressing specific problems. This may not happen often, however, because the incentives in academia do not encourage rigorous, in-depth appraisals of empirical results.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/31309
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    Article provided by Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association in its journal Agricultural and Resource Economics Review.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (October)
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:31309
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.narea.org/

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    1. Tomek, William G., 1994. "Economic forecasting in agriculture: Comment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 143-145, June.
    2. McNew, Kevin, 1996. "Spatial Market Integration: Definition, Theory, And Evidence," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April.
    3. Roy Bailey and Marcus Chambers, . "A Theory of Commodity Price Fluctuations," Economics Discussion Papers 432, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Tauer, Loren W., 2000. "Investment Analysis In Agriculture," Staff Papers 14763, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    5. Deaton, A., 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica," Papers 186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    6. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), August.
    7. Alston, Julian M. & Chalfant, James A., 1991. "Can We Take The Con Out Of Meat Demand Studies?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(01), July.
    8. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving The Relevance Of Research On Price Forecasting And Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 25(1), April.
    9. Chanjin Chung & Harry M. Kaiser, 1999. "Distribution of Gains from Research and Promotion in Multistage Production Systems: Comment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 593-597.
    10. John M. Antle, 1999. "The New Economics of Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(5), pages 993-1010.
    11. Tomek, William G. & Myers, Robert J., 1993. "Empirical Analysis Of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint," Working Papers 6847, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    12. George C. Davis, 1997. "The Logic of Testing Structural Change in Meat Demand: A Methodological Analysis and Appraisal," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1186-1192.
    13. Just, Richard E., 1993. "Discovering Production and Supply Relationships: Present Status and Future Opportunities," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(01), April.
    14. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Implications Of Deflating Commodity Prices For Time-Series Analysis," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18944, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521326162 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(01), July.
    17. Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May.
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