IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v61y2017icp181-192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A panel stationarity test with gradual structural shifts: Re-investigate the international commodity price shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Nazlioglu, Saban
  • Karul, Cagin

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple panel stationarity test which takes into account structural shifts and cross-section dependency. Structural shifts are modelled as gradual/smooth process with a Fourier approximation. The so-called Fourier panel stationarity test has a standard normal distribution. The Monte Carlo simulations indicate that (i) if the error terms are i.i.d, the test shows good size and power properties even in small samples; and (ii) if the error terms are serially correlated, the test has reasonable size and high power. We re-examine the behavior of the international commodity prices and find out an evidence on the persistence of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nazlioglu, Saban & Karul, Cagin, 2017. "A panel stationarity test with gradual structural shifts: Re-investigate the international commodity price shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 181-192.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:181-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316307994
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    2. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    3. Kaddour Hadri & Rolf Larsson & Yao Rao, 2012. "Testing For Stationarity With A Break In Panels Where The Time Dimension Is Finite," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 123-148, December.
    4. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
    5. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    6. Chao-Hsiang Yang & Chi-Tai Lin & Yu-Sheng Kao, 2012. "Exploring stationarity and structural breaks in commodity prices by the panel data model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 353-361, March.
    7. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    8. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    9. Schwert, G William, 2002. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 5-17, January.
    10. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, April.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    12. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Staff Papers 121146, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 31-34.
    14. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    15. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(2), pages 125-137, October.
    16. Joakim Westerlund, 2012. "Testing For Unit Roots In Panel Time-Series Models With Multiple Level Breaks," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 80(6), pages 671-699, December.
    17. T. S. Breusch & A. R. Pagan, 1980. "The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 47(1), pages 239-253.
    18. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    19. M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008. "A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, March.
    20. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    21. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "A guide to the computation of stationarity tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 433-448, June.
    22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2013. "An analysis of commodity markets: What gain for investors?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3878-3889.
    23. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    24. Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2006. "Mean group tests for stationarity in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(1), pages 123-158, March.
    25. Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
    26. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    27. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    28. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    29. Adams, Zeno & Glück, Thorsten, 2015. "Financialization in commodity markets: A passing trend or the new normal?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 93-111.
    30. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
    31. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, August.
    32. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-1189, December.
    33. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
    34. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi‐Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, August.
    35. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    36. Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2011. "A Locally Optimal Test for No Unit Root in Cross-sectionally Dependent Panel Data," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 52(2), pages 165-184, December.
    37. Eiji Kurozumi & Shinya Tanaka, 2010. "Reducing the size distortion of the KPSS test," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 415-426, November.
    38. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    39. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    40. Enders, Walter & Lee, Junsoo, 2012. "The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 196-199.
    41. Lee, Junsoo, 1996. "On the power of stationarity tests using optimal bandwidth estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 131-137, May.
    42. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles, 2002. "Series-Specific Unit Root Tests with Panel Data," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(5), pages 527-546, December.
    43. Peter C. B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1057-1112, September.
    44. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    45. Kagraoka, Yusho, 2016. "Common dynamic factors in driving commodity prices: Implications of a generalized dynamic factor model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 609-617.
    46. Lee, Junsoo & Huang, Cliff J. & Shin, Yongcheol, 1997. "On stationary tests in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 165-172, August.
    47. Myers, Robert J., 1994. "Time Series Econometrics and Commodity Price Analysis: A Review," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(02), pages 1-15, August.
    48. Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Prices Revisited," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-13, October.
    49. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, May.
    50. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    51. repec:bla:buecrs:v:64:y:2012:i::p:s123-s148 is not listed on IDEAS
    52. Abadir, Karim M., 1993. "Ols Bias in a Nonstationary Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 81-93, January.
    53. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
    54. Bart Hobijn & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 2004. "Generalizations of the KPSS‐test for stationarity," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 483-502, November.
    55. Kurozumi, Eiji, 2002. "Testing for stationarity with a break," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 63-99, May.
    56. Adams, Zeno & Glueck, Thorsten, 2014. "Financialization in Commodity Markets: A Passing Trend or the New Normal?," Working Papers on Finance 1413, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Aug 2015.
    57. Kyung‐So Im & Junsoo Lee & Margie Tieslau, 2005. "Panel LM Unit‐root Tests with Level Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(3), pages 393-419, June.
    58. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    59. Ching-Chuan Tsong & Cheng-Feng Lee & Li-Ju Tsai & Te-Chung Hu, 2016. "The Fourier approximation and testing for the null of cointegration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 1085-1113, November.
    60. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.
    2. Durusu-Ciftci, Dilek & Ispir, M. Serdar & Kok, Dundar, 2019. "Do stock markets follow a random walk? New evidence for an old question," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 165-175.
    3. Tolga Omay & Mübariz Hasanov & Yongcheol Shin, 2018. "Testing for Unit Roots in Dynamic Panels with Smooth Breaks and Cross-Sectionally Dependent Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 52(1), pages 167-193, June.
    4. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    5. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Kasim Mansur, 2019. "External Shocks, Structural Breaks And Unemployment Hysteresis In Selected Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 575-600, June.
    6. Nazlioglu, Saban & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo & Rayos-Velazquez, Marco & Karul, Cagin, 2021. "Convergence in OPEC carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from new panel stationarity tests with factors and breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Yifei Cai & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Are shocks to natural gas consumption transitory or permanent? A more powerful panel unit root test on the G7 countries," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2), pages 111-120, May.
    8. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2007. "Another Look at the Null of Stationary RealExchange Rates. Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," IREA Working Papers 200710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007.
    9. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Are OECD consumption-income ratios stationary after all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 107-117, January.
    10. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    11. Kaddour Hadri & Eiji Kurozumi, 2008. "A Simple Panel Stationarity Test in the Presence of Cross-Sectional Dependence," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-016, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    12. Mark Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2012. "PPP in OECD Countries: An Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Stationarity, Cross-Sectional Dependency and Structural Breaks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 767-783, November.
    13. Kaddour Hadri & Rolf Larsson & Yao Rao, 2012. "Testing For Stationarity With A Break In Panels Where The Time Dimension Is Finite," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(Supplemen), pages 123-148, December.
    14. Bakas, Dimitrios & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2014. "Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 551-562.
    15. Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "Trends in international commodity prices: Panel unit root analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 441-451.
    16. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    17. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2011. "Unit-root and stationarity testing with empirical application on industrial production of CEE-4 countries," MPRA Paper 29648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Liu, Wen-Chi, 2013. "Reexamining the income inequality in China: Evidence from sequential panel selection method," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 37-42.
    19. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Marco Chi Keung, 2015. "Structural breaks and electricity prices: Further evidence on the role of climate policy uncertainties in the Australian electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 176-182.
    20. Kaddour Hadri & Yao Rao, 2008. "Panel Stationarity Test with Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 245-269, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C12; C23; Q02; Gradual shifts; Fourier approximation; Stationarity test; Panel data; Commodity prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:181-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.