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Testing the prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks

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  • Rabah Arezki
  • Kaddour Hadri
  • Prakash Loungani
  • Yao Rao

Abstract

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting as far back as 1650 and powerful panel data stationarity tests that allow for endogenous multiple structural breaks. Results show that all the series are stationary after allowing for endogeneous multiple breaks. Test results on the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis, which states that relative commodity prices follow a downward secular trend, are mixed but with a majority of series showing negative trends. We also make a rst attempt at identifying the potential drivers of the structural breaks. We end by investigating the dynamics of the volatility of the 25 relative primary commodity prices also allowing for endogenous multiple breaks. We describe the often time-varying volatility in commodity prices and show that it has increased in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Rabah Arezki & Kaddour Hadri & Prakash Loungani & Yao Rao, 2014. "Testing the prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," OxCarre Working Papers 124, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:124
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    Cited by:

    1. Winkelried, Diego, 2018. "Unit roots, flexible trends, and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    3. repec:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:4:p:744-763 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Pierre JACQUET & Alexis ATLANI & Marwan LISSER, 2017. "Policy responses to terms of trade shocks," Working Papers P205, FERDI.
    5. repec:rjr:romjef:v::y:2018:i:1:p:76-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:jimfin:v:82:y:2018:i:c:p:71-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gabriela Simonet & Julie Subervie & Driss Ezzine-De-Blas & Marina Cromberg & Amy Duchelle, 2015. "Paying smallholders not to cut down the amazon forest: impact evaluation of a REDD+ pilot project," Working Papers 1514, Chaire Economie du climat.
    8. MacDonald, Stephen & Meyer, Leslie, 2018. "Long Run Trends and Fluctuations In Cotton Prices," MPRA Paper 84484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2018.
    9. John Baffes & Xiaoli L. Etienne, 2016. "Analysing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 688-713.
    10. Canuto, Otaviano, 2014. "The Commodity Super Cycle: Is This Time Different?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 150, pages 1-3, June.
    11. Christophe Gouel & Nicolas Legrand, 2017. "Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 744-763, June.
    12. Stefan Schiman & Andreas Reinstaller, 2015. "Analyse der Terms-of-Trade Österreichs," FIW Research Reports series VI-004, FIW.
    13. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    14. Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani & John Simon & Susan M. Wachter, 2016. "Global food prices and domestic inflation: some cross-country evidence," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 665-687.
    15. Adam Sneyd, 2014. "When Governance Gets Going: Certifying ‘Better Cotton’ and ‘Better Sugarcane’," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 45(2), pages 231-256, March.
    16. Bernhard G. Gunter & Valeria Vargas Sejas, 2017. "Free Falling Terms of Trade Despite Industrialization: The Case of Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series (BDRWPS) BDRWPS No. 33, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC).
    17. Yves Jégourel, 2017. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 1) : le débat sur l’hypothèse de Prebisch-Singer," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1729, OCP Policy Center.
    18. Nazlioglu, Saban & Karul, Cagin, 2017. "A panel stationarity test with gradual structural shifts: Re-investigate the international commodity price shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 181-192.
    19. Harvey, David I. & Kellard, Neil M. & Madsen, Jakob B. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Long-Run Commodity Prices, Economic Growth, and Interest Rates: 17th Century to the Present Day," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 57-70.
    20. repec:eee:ecolet:v:166:y:2018:i:c:p:86-89 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; integrated assessment; Ramsey growth; carbon tax; renewables subsidy; learning by doing; directed technical change; multiplicative damages; additive damages;

    JEL classification:

    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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