When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices
In this study, we test the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis on the secular decline of relative primary commodity prices with the extended Grilli and Yang (1988) data set, ending at 2010.” Rather than asking whether it holds for the whole sample period, we examine if the hypothesis holds sometimes during the sample period by estimating the piecewise linear trends of primary commodity prices. We employ the new ℓ1 trend filtering proposed by Kim et al. (2009) to estimate the piecewise linear trends. We find that the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis holds sometimes, but not always, for many of the primary commodities in the Grilli–Yang data. The strength of the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis has become substantially weaker recently, as the relative prices of many primary commodities have increased sharply since around 2000.
Volume (Year): 42 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BKFILTER: RATS procedure to implement band pass filter using Baxter-King method," Statistical Software Components RTS00026, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
- Helle Bunzel & Timothy Vogelsang, 2003. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch Singer Hypothesis," Econometrics 0304002, EconWPA.
- Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2003. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation with an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10353, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
- Chao-Hsiang Yang & Chi-Tai Lin & Yu-Sheng Kao, 2012. "Exploring stationarity and structural breaks in commodity prices by the panel data model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 353-361, March.
- Paul Cashin & C. John McCDermott, 2002. "The Long-Run Behavior of Commodity Prices: Small Trends and Big Variability," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(2), pages 1-2.
- Tae-Hwan Kim & Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Tony Rayner & Paul Newbold, 2003. "Testing for Linear Trend with Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 539-551, 09.
- Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
- Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
- Deaton, A., 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Aftica," Papers 186, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
- Javier León & Raimundo Soto, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
- Leon, Javier & Soto, Raimundo, 1995. "Structural breaks and long-run trends in commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1406, The World Bank.
- Stephan Pfaffenzeller & Paul Newbold & Anthony Rayner, 2007. "A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 21(1), pages 151-163.
- Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "LPUNIT: RATS procedure to implement Lumsdaine-Papell unit root test with structural breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00110, Boston College Department of Economics.
- David I. Harvey & Neil M. Kellard & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2010. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 367-377, May.
- Zanias, George P., 2005. "Testing for trends in the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactured goods," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 49-59, October.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2011. "Testing for Unit Roots and the Impact of Quadratic Trends, with an Application to Relative Primary Commodity Prices," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 514-547, October.
- David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2008. "Testing for unit roots and the impact of quadratic trends, with an application to relative primary commodity prices," Discussion Papers 08/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
- Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Giorgio Fazio & Norbert Fiess, 2010. "Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Working Papers 2010_27, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "Primary commodity prices : co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5578, The World Bank.
- Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
- John T. Cuddington, 1992. "An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 7(2), pages 159-179.
- Tilton, John E., 2013. "The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 196-203.
- John E. Tilton, 2012. "The Terms Of Trade Debate and the Policy Implications for Primary Product Producers," Working Papers 2012-11, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
- Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Kurozumi, Eiji & Rao, Yao, 2012. "Testing the Prebish–Singer hypothesis using second-generation panel data stationarity tests with a break," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 814-816.
- Rappoport, Peter & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1989. "Segmented Trends and Non-stationary Time Series," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(395), pages 168-177, Supplemen.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Peter Rappoport, 1989. "Segmented trends and non-stationary time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10169, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- White Halbert & Granger Clive W.J., 2011. "Consideration of Trends in Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-40, February.
- Zhou Zhou & Xiaofeng Shao, 2013. "Inference for linear models with dependent errors," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(2), pages 323-343, 03.
- Shaun K. Roache, 2012. "China's Impacton World Commodity Markets," IMF Working Papers 12/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
- Ocampo, José Antonio & Parra-Lancourt, Mariángela, 2010. "The terms of trade for commodities since the mid-19th century," Revista de Historia Económica, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 11-43, March.
- Hiroshi Yamada, 2012. "A Note on Band-Pass Filters Based on the Hodrick-Prescott Filter and the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2011(2), pages 105-109.
- Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2012. "Commodity Prices over Two Centuries: Trends, Volatility, and Impact," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 185-206, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)