An empirical analysis of real commodity price trends: Aggregation, model selection and implications
This paper re-examines the empirical validity of the Prebish-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufacturing goods. The empirical findings based on arithmetic and geometric commodity price indices are compared. When Grilli-Yang's arithmetic mean index is employed, the findings regarding commodity price trends are inconclusive. A new geometric mean index, in contrast, yields results that are robust.
Volume (Year): 7 (1992)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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- Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-128, March.
- Thirlwall, A. P. & Bergevin, J., 1985. "Trends, cycles and asymmetries in the terms of trade of primary commodities from developed and less developed countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(7), pages 805-817, July.
- Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-788, September.
- James G. MacKinnon, 2010.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests,"
1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
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