IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v38y2013i2p196-203.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers

Author

Listed:
  • Tilton, John E.

Abstract

The terms of trade debate initiated by Raul Prebisch and Hans Singer over 60 years ago continues to this day and is unlikely to be resolved soon. However, even if Prebisch and Singer are right and the terms of trade of countries exporting primary products are falling, to suggest that these countries should diversify away from the production of mineral commodities and other primary products, as many have done, may be poor policy advice, encouraging countries to abandon a promising source of wealth with which to foster economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Tilton, John E., 2013. "The terms of trade debate and the policy implications for primary product producers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 196-203.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:2:p:196-203
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420712000864
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2012.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bleaney, Michael F & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 349-363, July.
    2. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
    3. Anonymous, 1950. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 117-118, February.
    4. Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, 1998. "Prebisch and Singer Effects on the Terms of Trade between Primary Producers and Manufacturers," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Sapsford & John-ren Chen (ed.), Development Economics and Policy, chapter 4, pages 35-62, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. David I. Harvey & Neil M. Kellard & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2010. "The Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 367-377, May.
    6. Svedberg, Peter & Tilton, John E., 2006. "The real, real price of nonrenewable resources: copper 1870-2000," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 501-519, March.
    7. Andrew Sharpe & Celeste Bradley, 2009. "A Detailed Analysis of the Productivity Performance of Mining in Canada," CSLS Research Reports 2009-07, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    8. Charles L. Schultze, 2003. "The Consumer Price Index: Conceptual Issues and Practical Suggestions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 3-22, Winter.
    9. Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, 1996. "Trend in the international terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 53-67.
    10. Anonymous, 1950. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 639-656, November.
    11. Joaquín Jara, J. & Pérez, Patricio & Villalobos, Pablo, 2010. "Good deposits are not enough: Mining labor productivity analysis in the copper industry in Chile and Peru 1992-2009," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 247-256, December.
    12. Anonymous, 1961. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 280-289, April.
    13. Graham Davis, 2011. "The resource drag," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-176, June.
    14. Michael J. Boskin, 1998. "Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and the Cost of Living," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 3-26, Winter.
    15. Anonymous, 1961. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 500-510, July.
    16. Anonymous, 1961. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 172-183, January.
    17. Anonymous, 1950. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 442-456, August.
    18. Sapsford, D, 1985. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and Some Additional Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 781-788, September.
    19. Jose E. Galdon Sanchez & James A. Schmitz, 2003. "Competitive pressure and labor productivity: world iron ore markets in the 1980s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 27(Spr), pages 9-23.
    20. Grilli, Enzo R & Yang, Maw Cheng, 1988. "Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 2(1), pages 1-47, January.
    21. Hadass, Yael S & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2003. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(3), pages 629-656, April.
    22. Spraos, John, 1980. "The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 107-128, March.
    23. Vernon Topp & Leo Soames & Dean Parham & Harry Bloch, 2008. "Productivity in the Mining Industry: Measurement and Interpretation," Staff Working Papers 0807, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    24. Javier León & Raimundo Soto, 1997. "Structural Breaks And Long-Run Trends In Commodity Prices," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 347-366.
    25. Cuddington, John T., 1992. "Long-run trends in 26 primary commodity prices : A disaggregated look at the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 207-227, October.
    26. repec:idb:brikps:59538 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. James A. Schmitz Jr., 2005. "What Determines Productivity? Lessons from the Dramatic Recovery of the U.S. and Canadian Iron Ore Industries Following Their Early 1980s Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 582-625, June.
    28. Harry Bloch & David Sapsford, 1991. "Postwar Movements in Prices of Primary Products and Manufactured Goods," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 249-266, December.
    29. Daniel Lederman & William F. Maloney, 2007. "Natural Resources : Neither Curse nor Destiny," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7183, September.
      • Anthony J. Venables & William Maloney & Ari Kokko & Claudio Bravo Ortega & Daniel Lederman & Roberto Rigobón & José De Gregorio & Jesse Czelusta & Shamila A. Jayasuriya & Magnus Blomström & L. Colin X, 2007. "Natural Resources: Neither Curse nor Destiny," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 59538 edited by William Maloney & Daniel Lederman, February.
    30. Prebisch, Raúl, 1950. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems," Sede de la CEPAL en Santiago (Estudios e Investigaciones) 29973, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    31. Anonymous, 1961. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 662-670, October.
    32. Diakosavvas, Dimitris & Scandizzo, Pasquale Lucio, 1991. "Trends in the Terms of Trade of Primary Commodities, 1900-1982: The Controversy and Its Origins," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 231-264, January.
    33. Wright, Gavin, 1990. "The Origins of American Industrial Success, 1879-1940," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 651-668, September.
    34. Fernandez, Viviana, 2012. "Trends in real commodity prices: How real is real?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 30-47.
    35. Anonymous, 1950. "Economic and Social Council," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 275-292, May.
    36. Bloch, Harry & Sapsford, David, 1997. "Some estimates of Prebisch and Singer effects on the terms of trade between primary producers and manufacturers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 1873-1884, November.
    37. Denny Ellerman & Thomas Stoker & Ernst R. Berndt, 2001. "Sources of Productivity Growth in the American Coal Industry 1972-95," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 373-418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Schiman & Andreas Reinstaller, 2015. "Analyse der Terms-of-Trade Österreichs," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60648, February.
    2. Iizuka, Michiko & Vargas, Fernando & Baumann, Jakob, 2017. "Financial mechanism to invest in knowledge from natural resource revenues: Experiences from Bolivia, Chile, Colombia and Peru," MERIT Working Papers 2017-042, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Baffes, John & Kabundi, Alain, 2023. "Commodity price shocks: Order within chaos?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.
    5. Zhu, Yongguang & Xu, Deyi & Cheng, Jinhua & Ali, Saleem Hassan, 2018. "Estimating the impact of China's export policy on tin prices: a mode decomposition counterfactual analysis method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 250-264.
    6. Asada, Raphael & Stern, Tobias, 2018. "Competitive Bioeconomy? Comparing Bio-based and Non-bio-based Primary Sectors of the World," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 120-128.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cuddington, John T. & Ludema, Rodney & Jayasuriya, Shamila A, 2002. "Prebisch-Singer Redux," Working Papers 15857, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ghoshray, Atanu & Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Wohar, Mark E., 2011. "Breaking Trends and the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: A Further Investigation," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120387, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. José Antonio Ocampo & María Angela Parra, 2004. "The commodity terms of trade and their strategic implications for development," International Trade 0403001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. André Varella Mollick & João Ricardo Faria & Pedro H. Albuquerque & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2008. "Can globalisation stop the decline in commodities' terms of trade?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 683-701, September.
    6. Hany Fahmy, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis Using Wavelets Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, July.
    7. Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Ana Iregui & Jesús Otero, 2013. "The long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures: a panel data approach," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 12(1), pages 35-56, April.
    9. Kellard, Neil & Mark E Wohar, 2003. "Trends and Persistence in Primary Commodity Prices," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 118, Royal Economic Society.
    10. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2011. "A reexamination of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 242-251, July.
    11. Bilge Erten, 2010. "Industrial Upgrading and Export Diversification: A Comparative Analysis of Economic Policies in Turkey and Malaysia," Working Papers id:2778, eSocialSciences.
    12. Winkelried, Diego, 2021. "Unit roots in real primary commodity prices? A meta-analysis of the Grilli and Yang data set," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    13. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 521, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Zhang, Yunxiao, 2020. "Investigating properties of commodity price responses to real and nominal shocks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Kellard, Neil & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "On the prevalence of trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 146-167, February.
    16. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2011. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Developing Countries' Terms of Trade," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2011-006, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Geronimi, Vincent & Taranco, Armand, 2018. "Revisiting the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis of a secular decline in the terms of trade of primary commodities (1900–2016). A dynamic regime approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 329-339.
    18. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2001. "The North-South terms of trade debate: a re-examination," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 1(4), pages 309-327, October.
    19. John E. Tilton, 2013. "Cyclical and Secular Determinants of Productivity in the Copper, Aluminum, Iron Ore, and Coal Industries," Working Papers 2013-11, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    20. Murat ASLAN & Saban NAZLIOGLU, 2018. "Do International Relative Commodity Prices Support the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis? A Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Testing," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 76-92, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade debate; Prebisch Singer thesis; Resource curse; Natural resource wealth and economic development; Primary product prices and production costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • L7 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:38:y:2013:i:2:p:196-203. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.