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When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis

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  • Tauer, Loren W.

Abstract

The Dixit entry/exit real option model was applied to the entry/exit decisions of New York dairy farmers. For the cost structure of a 500-cow farm the entry milk price is $17.52 per hundredweight (cwt.) and the exit milk price is $10.84. For the 50-cow farm cost structure the entry price is higher at $23.71 per cwt., and the exit price is also higher at $13.48. If infinite numbers of representative farms enter and exit at these prices, the price of milk should range between $13.48 and $17.52 per cwt.

Suggested Citation

  • Tauer, Loren W., 2006. "When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21251, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea06:21251
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Calum G. Turvey, 2010. "Biography: Kiyosi Itô and his influence on the study of agricultural finance and economics," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 70(1), pages 5-20, May.
    2. Heikkinen, T. & Pietola, K., 2009. "Investment and the dynamic cost of income uncertainty: The case of diminishing expectations in agriculture," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 634-646, January.
    3. Tauer, Loren W. & Dressler, Jonathan B., 2010. "When to Exit Dairy Farming: The Value of Waiting," EB Series 121632, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    4. Nadolnyak, D. & Griffin, B. & Hartarska, V., 2018. "Farmer Retirement and Disinvestment in the U.S," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277184, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. repec:ags:ifaamr:266449 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:ags:aaea13:150610 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment, disinvestment and policy impact analysis in the dairy sector: a real options approach," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 159229, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    8. Delbridge, Timothy A., 2013. "Threshold Effects in Transition to Organic Dairy Production," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150554, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Griffin, Bretford & Nadolnyak, Denis A. & Hartarska, Valentina, 2018. "Exit and Disinvestment of Retirement Age Farmers in the US," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 273975, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(02), pages 357-373, October.
    11. Venus, Thomas & Punt, Maarten & Wesseler, Justus, 2015. "Influence of voluntary GMO-free production standards on the reputation and flexibility of agricultural value chains," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211920, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Feil, Jan-Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2016. "Analysing investment and disinvestment decisions under uncertainty, firm heterogeneity and tradable output permits," DARE Discussion Papers 1602, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    13. Seyoum, Emayenesh & Karanja, Francis, 2014. "Investment decisions of dairy farmers in south-west Victoria under price and yield uncertainty," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Macquarie, Australia 183419, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    14. McClintock, Anthea, 2009. "Investment in irrigation technology: an application of real options analysis," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 47934, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    15. Connor, Jeffery D. & Kandulu, John M. & Bark, Rosalind H., 2014. "Irrigation revenue loss in Murray–Darling Basin drought: An econometric assessment," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 163-170.
    16. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 2012. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-28, August.
    17. Cai, Xiaowei & Stiegert, Kyle W., 2014. "Market Analysis of Ethanol Capacity," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 0(Issue 1), pages 1-12, February.
    18. Pieralli, Simone & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin, 2014. "Abandonment of milk production under uncertainty and inefficiency: The case of West German farms," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170236, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Feil, Jan-Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2016. "Investment And Disinvestment Under Uncertainty, Firm Heterogeneity And Tradable Output Permits," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244756, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    20. Griffin, Bretford & Hartarska, Valentina & Nadolnyak, Denis, 2018. "Entry and Exit from Farming: Insights from 5 Rounds of Agricultural Census Data," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266616, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    21. Seyoum, Emayenesh & Chan, Chris, 2012. "A real-options analysis of wine grape farming in north west Victoria," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124446, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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    Farm Management;

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