IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/huscpw/159229.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Investment, disinvestment and policy impact analysis in the dairy sector: a real options approach

Author

Listed:
  • Feil, Jan-Henning
  • Musshoff, Oliver

Abstract

Due to strong changes in general economic conditions and increasing market volatility, a higher level of investments and disinvestments in the dairy sector can be observed. Therefore, the simultaneous analysis of firms’ investment and disinvestment decisions under consideration of uncertainty and market interventions is of high relevance. In this paper, a flexible real options market model is applied to the German dairy sector. The model considers disinvestment besides investment options and, moreover, allows the integration and assessment of different market interventions that are relevant to the dairy sector. According to the results, production ceilings and investment subsidies are preferable to price floors because the welfare is less reduced for a given stimulation of the willingness to invest. Moreover, it is shown that not considering disinvestment options, which in reality often exist, can lead to incorrect valuations of investment strategies at firm level and incorrect policy impact analyses at macroeconomic level. Aufgrund von starken Veränderungen in den politischen Rahmenbedingungen und zunehmend volatiler Märkte nehmen sowohl Investitionen als auch Desinvestitionen im Milchsektor in den letzten Jahren deutlich zu. Aus diesem Grund ist die simultane Analyse von Investitions- und Desinvestitionsentscheidungen landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmen unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit und Marktinterventionen von besonderer Relevanz. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wird ein flexibles Realoptionsmodell auf den deutschen Milchsektor angewandt. Das Modell berücksichtigt neben Investitionsoptionen auch Desinvestitionsoptionen und erlaubt des Weiteren die Integration und Bewertung unterschiedlicher Marktinterventionen, die für den Milchsektor relevant sind. Entsprechend der Ergebnisse sind sowohl Produktionsobergrenzen als auch Investitionszulagen gleichsam Preisuntergrenzen vorzuziehen, da die sektorale Wohlfahrt für eine gegebene Stimulierung der Investitionsbereitschaft weniger stark eingeschränkt wird. Außerdem kann gezeigt werden, dass die Nicht-Berücksichtigung von Desinvestitionsoptionen, die in der Realität häufig vorliegen, zu fehlerhaften Investitionsentscheidungen auf einzelbetrieblicher Ebene und fehlerhaften Politikfolgenabschätzungen auf sektoraler Ebene führen kann.

Suggested Citation

  • Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment, disinvestment and policy impact analysis in the dairy sector: a real options approach," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 159229, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:huscpw:159229
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.159229
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/159229/files/wp16-pdfA.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.159229?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tauer, Loren W., 2006. "When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-9, October.
    2. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    3. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    4. Fariñas, Jose C. & Ruano, Sonia, 2005. "Firm productivity, heterogeneity, sunk costs and market selection," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 505-534, September.
    5. Ioannis Karatzas & Fridrik M. Baldursson, 1996. "Irreversible investment and industry equilibrium (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 69-89.
    6. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    7. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Analysis of Automatic Milking Systems," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 282-294, October.
    8. Odening, Martin & Mu[ss]hoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert & Balmann, Alfons, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty--Does competition matter?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 994-1014, March.
    9. Gunnar Breustedt & Thomas Glauben, 2007. "Driving Forces behind Exiting from Farming in Western Europe," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(1), pages 115-127, February.
    10. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Modelling investment and disinvestment decisions under competition, uncertainty and different market interventions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 443-452.
    11. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    12. Janis M. Carey & David Zilberman, 2002. "A Model of Investment under Uncertainty: Modern Irrigation Technology and Emerging Markets in Water," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 171-183.
    13. T. Jeffrey Price & Marshall C. Lamb & Michael E. Wetzstein, 2005. "Technology choice under changing peanut policies," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(1), pages 11-19, July.
    14. Ruth Vargas Hill, 2010. "Investment and Abandonment Behavior of Rural Households: An Empirical Investigation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1065-1086.
    15. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Analysis of Automatic Milking Systems," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-13, October.
    16. Hopenhayn, Hugo A, 1992. "Entry, Exit, and Firm Dynamics in Long Run Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
    17. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    18. Engel, Phoebe D. & Hyde, Jeffrey, 2003. "A Real Options Approach To Investment Analysis Of Automatic Milking Systems," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22216, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. John V. Leahy, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-1133.
    20. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2001. "Structural change in agricultural production: Economics, technology and policy," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 5, pages 263-285, Elsevier.
    21. Jan-Henning Feil & Oliver Musshoff & Alfons Balmann, 2013. "Policy impact analysis in competitive agricultural markets: a real options approach," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(4), pages 633-658, September.
    22. Martin Odening & Oliver Mußhoff & Alfons Balmann, 2005. "Investment decisions in hog finishing: an application of the real options approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 32(1), pages 47-60, January.
    23. Timothy J. Richards & Paul M. Patterson, 1998. "Hysteresis and the Shortage of Agricultural Labor," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(4), pages 683-695.
    24. Bryant, Amy & Richards, Timothy J., 1998. "Hysteresis And The Shortage Of Agricultural Labor," 1998 Annual meeting, August 2-5, Salt Lake City, UT 20858, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Barbara Glensk & Christiane Rosen & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Marco Lübbecke & Arie Koster & Peter Letmathe & Reinhard Madlener & Britta Peis & Grit Walther (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2014, edition 1, pages 173-179, Springer.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Feil, Jan-Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2016. "Analysing investment and disinvestment decisions under uncertainty, firm heterogeneity and tradable output permits," DARE Discussion Papers 1602, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    2. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Policy Impact Analysis on Investments and Disinvestments under Competition: A Real Options Approach," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 124294, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    3. Feil, Jan-Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2016. "Investment And Disinvestment Under Uncertainty, Firm Heterogeneity And Tradable Output Permits," 56th Annual Conference, Bonn, Germany, September 28-30, 2016 244756, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    4. Tauer, Loren W., 2006. "When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 339-347, October.
    5. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Modelling investment and disinvestment decisions under competition, uncertainty and different market interventions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 443-452.
    6. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Gassner, Anja & Musshoff, Oliver, 2018. "Experimental insights on the investment behavior of small-scale coffee farmers in central Uganda under risk and uncertainty," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 31-44.
    7. Seyoum, Emayenesh & Karanja, Francis, 2014. "Investment decisions of dairy farmers in south-west Victoria under price and yield uncertainty," 2014 Conference (58th), February 4-7, 2014, Port Macquarie, Australia 183419, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    8. Calum G. Turvey, 2010. "Biography," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 70(1), pages 5-20, May.
    9. Wolbert-Haverkamp, Matthias & Feil, Jan-Henning & Mußhoff, Oliver, 2014. "The value chain of heat production from woody biomass under market competition and different intervention systems: An agent-based real options model," DARE Discussion Papers 1407, Georg-August University of Göttingen, Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development (DARE).
    10. Tubetov, Dulat & Musshoff, Oliver & Kellner, Ulla, 2012. "Investments in Kazakhstani Dairy Farming: A Comparison of Classical Investment Theory and the Real Options Approach," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 51(3), pages 1-28, August.
    11. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1999. "Aggregate investment," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 813-862, Elsevier.
    12. Kersting, Stefan & Hüttel, Silke & Odening, Martin, 2015. "Structural change in agriculture under capacity constraints: An equilibrium approach," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 140, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    13. Gkochari, Christiana C., 2015. "Optimal investment timing in the dry bulk shipping sector," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 102-109.
    14. Joachim Gahungu and Yves Smeers, 2012. "A Real Options Model for Electricity Capacity Expansion," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/08, European University Institute.
    15. Twine, Edgar E. & Omore, Amos & Githinji, Julius, 2018. "Uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania and its implications for investment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(1).
    16. Balmann, Alfons & Kataria, Karin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment reluctance in supply chains: An agent-based real options approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(2A), pages 1-10.
    17. GAHUNGU, Joachim & SMEERS, Yves, 2011. "A real options model for electricity capacity expansion," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    18. Dumortier, Jerome Robert Florian, 2011. "The impact of forest offset credits under a stochastic carbon price on agriculture using a rational expectations and real options framework," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001160, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Musshoff, Oliver & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2008. "Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(1), pages 1-20.
    20. Lambrecht, Bart M., 2017. "Real options in finance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 166-171.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:huscpw:159229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iahubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.